Hail and Lightning Strike in Arkansas, May 13, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING
CEILINGS. ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
JET HAS SET UP OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOME POSSIBLE WIND SHEAR
1K TO 2K FT AT ALL TAFS. LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING...INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED IFR
CEILINGS LATE AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WARM ADVECTION ALREADY ONGOING IN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRING NEAR 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. DEEP
TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART...THE AREA WILL
REMAIN CAPPED THIS MORNING...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY RAINFALL
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. AS THE AREA BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD
EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE A CONCERN...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MORE SHEAR WILL BE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE
MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN. THE FRONT WILL
BE BISECTING THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FRONT REMAINING UNSTABLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION...SEVERAL WAVES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE STATE FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
STATE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP AS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE STATE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTEND STARTS WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVING PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF
ARKANSAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE FLOW IS MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...SO COLD
ADVECTION WAS MINIMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...AND KEEPING TEMPS CLOSE TO
NORMALS. BY SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAINLY A DRY COLD
FRONT FILTERING A BIT COOLER AIR INTO ARKANSAS...WITH SOME POSSIBLE
CLOUDS...AND A MORE NW WIND FLOW. THEN SURFACE RIDGING SETS UP OVER
THE STATE INTO MONDAY...FOR CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTERESTING
SURFACE LOW AND MCS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF WITH UPPER NW FLOW INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY. THIS IS A TYPICAL PATTERN
FOR THE AREA WHEN RETURN MOISTURE BEGINS SETTING UP AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IN THE NW UPPER FLOW CAN PRODUCE MCS ACTIVITY. WILL BE
INTERESTING IF THIS OCCURS AS DEPICTED BY THE LONG RANGE ECMWF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  60  74  60 /  40  60  70  70
CAMDEN AR         80  66  77  68 /  30  60  70  70
HARRISON AR       76  59  70  57 /  50  60  70  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  65  75  65 /  40  60  70  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  76  63  75  64 /  30  60  70  70
MONTICELLO AR     78  65  79  68 /  30  50  70  70
MOUNT IDA AR      79  64  74  64 /  40  60  70  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  59  71  58 /  50  70  70  70
NEWPORT AR        74  60  75  60 /  40  60  70  70
PINE BLUFF AR     77  64  77  67 /  30  60  70  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   76  62  72  61 /  40  60  70  70
SEARCY AR         75  61  74  62 /  30  60  70  70
STUTTGART AR      76  63  76  65 /  30  60  70  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-140945-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
515 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS
TODAY...THEN PUSH INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TOGETHER TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO AGAIN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF ARKANSAS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL STAY IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY...WHEN THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF ARKANSAS.

ANOTHER CONCERN FROM TODAY AND UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE STATE...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. THE PRIMARY AREA WILL BE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ONE TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL...WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN FOUR
INCHES. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD...FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
DRY WEATHER.

ARKANSAS RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN...SO
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM AREA NEWS
OUTLETS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59