Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, May 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER BEING AIDED BY PASSING MCV AND FUELED BY
STRONG INSTABILITY. THESE CONDITIONS REMAIN PRESENT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM
POTENTIAL. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO ANY POSSIBILITY OF COMPLEX
MERGING FROM STORMS ALONG DRYLINE...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE REMAIN IN
FAR WEST TEXAS THUS ANY EFFECTS WOULD BE VERY LATE TONIGHT.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS KANSAS WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY
AS UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS...HOWEVER BULK OF STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE MCS IS
LIKELY TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX WILL THREATEN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

MCS OUTFLOW AND EVENTUALLY THE TRUE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ENTER INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...HELD SOMEWHAT IN CHECK BY PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEARER LATE MAY NORMALS
BY MID WEEK. PENDING THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THERMAL RIDGE RETURNS IN FORCE BY LATE WEEK AND SERVE AS A STRONG
CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH AGAIN PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   76  93  73  87 /  20  20  20  30
FSM   71  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  20
MLC   74  90  73  88 /  10  10  10  20
BVO   71  90  69  86 /  30  20  30  30
FYV   68  86  69  85 /  30  10  10  30
BYV   70  86  69  85 /  30  20  10  40
MKO   72  89  70  87 /  20  10  10  20
MIO   73  89  71  85 /  30  30  30  40
F10   73  89  73  86 /  10  10  10  20
HHW   73  89  74  89 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

....TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....FAR EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70
MPH. IN ADDITION...WIND PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
RISK OF TORNADOES SHOULD A SUSTAINED SUPERCELL DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL LATE MAY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
141 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

OKZ068-069-072-251930-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
141 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN SEQUOYAH

AT 141 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MARBLE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUNCH AND MARBLE CITY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3588 9471 3571 9452 3555 9487 3560 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 227DEG 15KT 3564 9483