Ice Storm in Alaska, February 15 to 16, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
430 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY NOW CONVERGE ON A PATH TO JUST EAST OF KODIAK THEN NORTH TO
AROUND SEWARD FOR THE LOW AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
VERY POOR FROM SUNDAY ONWARD ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MINOR FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO BRING GALES AND PRECIP TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM STRECTCHES
FROM THE PRIBS TO BRISTOL BAY AND THE Y-K DELTA. THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT FORMED OFF THE TRIPLE POINT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF.
EXPECT IT TO MOVE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT.

WINDS IN THE MAIN FRONT HAVE BEEN GUSTY AND THERE IS SOME WAA WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. MANY AREAS INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN TODAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE. EXPECT TEMP JUMPS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY. PRECIP IS
PUSHING INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SNOW EXTENDS FROM THE Y-K DELTA TO
BRISTOL BAY..KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA.

THE MAIN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL CROSS INTO THE BERING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE IN THE PRIBS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
EXTEND IT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...BUT LIKE KODIAK...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER MANY
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NO STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THE WESTERN KENAI NORTHEAST TO
THE MAT VALLEY. THIS COULD CHANGE...HOWEVER...IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY
COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AGAIN. AFTER THE LOW DISSIPATES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
DETAILS...BUT MILD MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS/AKPENN...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF ADAK WITH
AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING EAST FROM THE LOW AND MOVING NORTH.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE PRIBILOFS
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO AROUND
UNALASKA ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE LOW...WITH RAIN AND SNOW
FROM THE LOW EASTWARD...AND SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE LOW.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS. EAST WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE
HEAVIEST PRECIP TODAY BUT MAY SEE A PICK UP WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ACTIVE STORM TRACK WILL CONTINUE. STILL
UNCERTAIN ABOUT STRENGTH OF LOWS MOVING INTO GULF AND JUST HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST THEY WILL TRACK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 195
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 140 141 179 185
         STORMS 120 130
         GALES 125 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW FEB 08