Hail in Texas, February 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

.AVIATION...
VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LIFR/IFR CIG
AND VSBY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF 3-5SM VISIBILITIES.
PREVAILING CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR LEVEL BY 06Z...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS
-SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER 16Z SATURDAY AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES AND SHEAR FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 353 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008/

MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL OF SE TEXAS SATURDAY.

AND SO IT BEGINS... PCPN COVERAGE TODAY HAS BEEN SCT WITH THE CAP
HOLDING THINGS TO JUST SHRAS THUS FAR. UPCOMING PICTURE CONTINUES
TO BE REFINED WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND THE LATEST ITERATION HAS NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HAPPENINGS TOMORROW AND ONLY SOME TWEAKS FOR
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NC TX THAT WAS PROGGED TO SLIP
INTO OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY. WITH SSELY
WINDS STRENGTHENING OVER THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT AND NOT MUCH BY
WAY OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT TODAY THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN IN/
AROUND ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF A SFC BOUNDARY
TO FOCUS PCPN TONIGHT HAS EASED CONCERNS REGARDING FLOOD/HVY RAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT. THE POPCORN/WAA SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TO MOVE RATHER STEADILY NORTH WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGING FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS SIGNIFICANT FOR
ALL OF SE TX. THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF TO HAVE A GOOD
DEAL TO WORK WITH AS THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX IS PROGGED TO BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING HIGH PWS (AOA 1.6-
1.8) AND HELICITIES (+400M2/SEC2)...AND VERY LOW LI (-6/-8). NAM
ALSO HAS EHI NUMBERS PEAKING NEAR 3 OVER THE WRN PARTS OF OUR CWA
AROUND NOON. SO THE EXPECTED SCENARIO HAS SCATTERED/DISCRETE TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.
WE WILL THEN SEE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW/PAC-
IFIC FRONT DEVELOP OUT WEST AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. TSRAS DURING THE AFTN HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HVY RAIN.
HVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE. THREAT
OF FLOODING NOT QUITE AS ELEVATED AS THE SEVERE WX THREAT ATTM AS
PROGGED STORM MOTIONS ARE DECENT. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND
VIA SPC OUTLOOKS FOR DAY 1 AND DAY 2.

CLEARING SKIES/COOLING TEMPS TO FOLLOW QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS AS A LONG FETCH OF NLY WINDS DEVELOP ON SUN. HIGH PRESSURE
TO SETTLE OVER THE STATE MON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON TUE.
ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING TO OUR CWA BY WEDS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS OUT WEST. 41

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS AFTN WITH SEAS RUNNING 3-4 FT. WINDS/SEAS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTH TX. HAVE POSTED SCEC FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS TONIGHT WITH AN
SCA BEGINNING AT 10Z. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER OVER THE
BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE COOLER WATER TEMPS. WINDS WILL
REACH SCEC/SCA CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL TX. APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY
AFTN. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 6 PM AND
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAINS LIKELY.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF SAT NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST. ACTUAL
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE FOG WILL
PERSIST UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES EARLY SUNDAY. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE
AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER REACHES OF THE BAYS.  35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  70  51  66  40 /  80  90  90  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  72  52  67  42 /  60  90  90  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            64  70  58  68  48 /  60  90  90  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
417 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-
161315-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
417 PM CST FRI FEB 15 2008

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 AM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS TO AN INCH. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAY TWO...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS BEGINNING MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...SECONDARY
ROADS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN MID MORNING SATURDAY AND
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE GREATER THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN DURING
RECENT EVENTS.

RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE ENOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...NEWS MEDIA...INTERNET...AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION SOURCES. BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF SEVERE
TORNADOES OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN YOUR AREA.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION ARE LIKELY SATURDAY.