Coastal Flood in Alabama, March 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN BETWEEN
2 MAIN SYNOPTIC PLAYERS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES.  THE FIRST IS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THE SECOND IS THE
LARGESCALE UPPER TROUGH AND TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES EXTENDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO GEORGIA.  THE DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND
DYNAMICALLY FAVORED UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION FOR STORMS TO THE EAST OF
THE TEXAS LOW WILL AGAIN BE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA.  TO THE NORTHEAST...WE SEE A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN TENNESEE THAT
WILL LIKELY SEND A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOUTH INTO GEORGIA TODAY.  THE
GEORGIA CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY SEND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST
INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE GREATER COVERAGES OF STORMS STAYING WEST
AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WE WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS CLOSER TO THE DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC
LIFT EAST OF THE TEXAS LOW.

THE 06Z RUC40 MODEL SOUNDINGS CENTERED OVER OUR AREA AROUND 18Z
TODAY SUGGEST MLCAPES AROUND 1800 J/KG...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.9 INCHES...SFC TO FREEZING LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6.7 C/KM...AND
SFC TO 900 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 13.95 G/KG.  THIS ALL
EQUATES ROUGHLY TO A LOW RISK OF WET MICROBURSTS FOR OUR AREA
TODAY.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY 04Z TONIGHT.  WENT PRETTY MUCH WITH
THE HPC QPF WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WEST.  WE ALSO ADJUSTED
THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE UP A FEW DEGREES (CLOSER TO THE MET) GIVEN WE
WENT A FEW POINTS LOWER ON POPS AND RAIN COVERAGES IN COMPARISON TO
THE GFS OVER OUR AREA.  /05

&&

.LONG TERM...BY 12Z THU MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS IS WELL EAST OF THE
CWFA WITH ELONGATED SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER EASTERN TX AND SOUTH
LA. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z FRI WITH
MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SE CONUS BY LATE FRI INTO
SAT. NEXT MID LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SAT WITH MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS FURTHER SOUTH. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EXPECT A WEAK COOL FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWFA BY EARLY SUN GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TO THE WEST DEEPENING MID TO UPPER TROF
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SE CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THIS...BELIEVE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED OUT
AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM LEADING ME TO STAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY MON. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST SFC RIDGE BUILDS
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND SE CONUS INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE WEEK
LATEST PHYSICAL SOLUTION FROM THE GFS DEPICTS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHWARD WEST OF THE SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST...GIVING WAY TO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT TO THE CWFA EARLY FRI MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEXMOS FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
GRIDS. /32

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULMEX WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A LIGHT NOCTURNAL FLOW GOING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KTS NEAR SHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WE STALL THE FRONT INLAND AND NO LONGER EXPECT IT
TO MAKE IT DOWN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WE STILL KEEP A SHORT
PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN FOR EARLY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS GRADUALLY WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULFMEX. /05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THU DUE TO CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT. /32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  42  71  43 /  80  05  00  00
PENSACOLA   72  46  73  46 / 100  10  00  00
DESTIN      70  51  71  50 /  90  20  00  00
EVERGREEN   73  42  71  38 / 100  10  00  00
WAYNESBORO  71  42  71  38 /  70  05  00  00
CAMDEN      73  43  71  39 / 100  10  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...AND MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

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