Wildfire in Florida, March 19, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

...GUSTY WINDS AREA-WIDE TODAY WITH STRONG OR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS BY
THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...WILL UPGRADE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO A WIND ADVISORY. LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG MIXING WITH LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...
INITIATING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THE BALANCE
OF TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PUSH INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP
DISTRIBUTION.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHILE ADVANCING
EAST-NORTHEAST. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOWS WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THIS EVENING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL TEMPER LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL JET WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KNOTS WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE MAIN WINDOW FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY/POSSIBLY
STRONG WINDS AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PRECEDE COLD
FRONT. ZERO-3 KM HELICITY VALUES SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS -
THUS CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS/TORNADOES WITH EVENING
ACTIVITY. MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE
WARM - THUS HAIL POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE MINIMAL.

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS REASONABLE AND ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION....WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER WHICH...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FOR A SHORT TIME
PERIOD. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND PLAN
ON JUST CARRYING VCTS WITH TEMPO SHRA FOR THIS PACKAGE AS BRUNT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT WEST WILL LIKELY SKIRT TO THE NORTH.
WILL INCLUDE LLWS WORDING FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DECOUPLE BUT REMAIN ABOVE 1 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS FURTHER INCREASING TODAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST. AGREE WITH EARLIER ASSESSMENT WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY
REACHING GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE GALE WARNINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON
THURSDAY WITH FRONT ADVANCING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOADING IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MIXING
TOOLS...I AM COMING UP WITH MID 20S RH VALUES FOR A PORTION OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY FOR THU AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE UPGRADE THIS
PORTION TO A WARNING WHILE LEAVING THE REMAINING WATCH AS IS.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR COLUMBIA-
     HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
948 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TODAY. A SQUALL LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY SUNSET. THIS
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS A
RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AT
AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SC/EZ