A weak frontal boundary remained draped across the Mid Atlantic for several days at the end of May. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a warm and unstable airmass on May 27th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A weak frontal boundary remained draped across the Mid Atlantic for several days at the end of May. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a warm and unstable airmass on May 27th. Some of these storms became severe, producing damaging winds in Jefferson County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 4:13 PM EST, 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 513 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... MESOSCALE CLUSTER HAS DVLPD IN CNTRL VA...AND HAS STRENGTHENED AS IT HAS EMERGED INTO THE HIER INSTBLTY AXIS. ACTVTY MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES LTST NAM12...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WL STRENGTHEN FRTHR AS IT REACHES METRO AREA TWD 00Z. LTL SHEAR TO SPEAK OF. MAIN THREATS LARGE HAIL AND DWNBURST WNDS. SVR WATCH OUT TIL 02Z. ALL PRODUCTS OUT. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIND SHIFTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY 12Z AT MARTINSBURG...AND BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...WIND SHIFT AT CHARLOTTESVILLE AROUND 16Z. THE MODELS ARE UNFORTUNATELY IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT BY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH PRETTY DRY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE NAM. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MORNING FOR THE NORTH. ONCE THE FRONT MAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH...THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS...HAVE A BLANKET SCATTERED POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM..ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CLUSTERED...SO TOOK A BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...RIDGING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED AREAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH ONLY VERY LOW POPS MAINTAINED. NEXT SYS OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE XPCTD LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE MID ATLC BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE FRIDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF IT. MODEL INDICATIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL SUGGESTING MORE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WEST. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 00Z. DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS AND CB IN CLOUD GROUP. AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY WITH MORE SPECIFICS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT KMRB OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE MASON DIXON LINE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING...ARRIVING AT KCHO BETWEEN 16 AND 20Z. HAVE TIMED NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AS 12Z AT KMRB...AND BE AT KCHO AROUND 16Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL CAP WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AT 15 KNOTS. TIDES RUNNING CLOSE TO PREDICTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SAR NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...SAR LONG TERM...MANNING AVIATION...SAR MARINE...SAR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-281000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BALTIMORE MD TO HARRISONBURG VIRGINIA. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MANNING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 431 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 VAZ040-272100- RAPPAHANNOCK VA- 431 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY... AT 431 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF SPERRYVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF PANORAMA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF FIVE FORKS...RAPPAHANNOCK...WOODVILLE...ROCK MILLS...WASHINGTON...HUNTLY...FLINT HILL AND HACKLEYS CROSSROAD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. MANNING
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
440 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0426 PM TSTM WND DMG PINE GROVE 38.54N 78.48W
05/27/2007 PAGE VA EMERGENCY MNGR
SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN PINE GROVE.
&&
SARPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
509 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0439 PM HAIL PINE GROVE 38.54N 78.48W
05/27/2007 M0.75 INCH PAGE VA COUNTY OFFICIAL
PENNY-SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN PINE GROVE
0452 PM TSTM WND DMG FRONT ROYAL 38.92N 78.18W
05/27/2007 WARREN VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
A LARGE LIMB FELL ON A TRANSFORMER AND DOWNED POWER LINES
IN FRONT ROYAL. POWER OUT IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CITY.
&&
SARPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
512 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODVILLE 38.61N 78.18W
05/27/2007 RAPPAHANNOCK VA COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREE DOWN AT ROUTE 620 AND FIVE FORKS ROAD
&&
HITCHENSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
517 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL WARRENTON 38.72N 77.80W
05/27/2007 E0.88 INCH FAUQUIER VA AMATEUR RADIO
NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WARRENTON.
&&
SARPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
534 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 PM TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTESVILLE 38.04N 78.49W
05/27/2007 CITY OF CHARLOTTES VA EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE
CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE. POWER OUT EARLIER ON EMMITT
STREET NOW RESTORED.
&&
SARThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:43 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County Officials reported trees down on Summit Point Road in Charles Town, WV.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in West Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in West Virginia, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 27286.