A weak frontal boundary remained draped across the Mid Atlantic for several days at the end of May. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a warm and unstable airmass on May 27th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A weak frontal boundary remained draped across the Mid Atlantic for several days at the end of May. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed in a warm and unstable airmass on May 27th. Some of these storms became severe, producing damaging winds and large hail across northern and central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 1:42 PM EST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 242 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 17Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60 IN THE FAR WEST AND AROUND 70 ALONG THE BAY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS STORMS POPPING UP OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WEST INTO WEST VIRGINIA...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NORTH AND EAST INTO BALTIMORE. CURRENT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG TO WASHINGTON DC TO BALTIMORE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS AS WELL AS THE LOCALLY RUN 15Z WRF-ARW. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE PULSE SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MOST STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WIND SHIFTS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY 12Z AT MARTINSBURG...AND BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY 18Z...WIND SHIFT AT CHARLOTTESVILLE AROUND 16Z. THE MODELS ARE UNFORTUNATELY IN LESS AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT BY MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS IT THROUGH PRETTY DRY WHILE THE NAM SHOWS QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE NAM. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MORNING FOR THE NORTH. ONCE THE FRONT MAKES IT FURTHER SOUTH...THE FOCUS OF ANY CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS...HAVE A BLANKET SCATTERED POP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM..ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW WITH THE COLD FRONT. MOS GUIDANCE WAS CLUSTERED...SO TOOK A BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...RIDGING AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAVORED AREAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK WITH ONLY VERY LOW POPS MAINTAINED. NEXT SYS OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE XPCTD LATE IN THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE MID ATLC BRINGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE FRIDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF IT. MODEL INDICATIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE STILL SUGGESTING MORE TROFFING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DEVELOPING NEXT WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WEST. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 00Z. DUE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS AND CB IN CLOUD GROUP. AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WILL AMEND ACCORDINGLY WITH MORE SPECIFICS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT KMRB OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE MASON DIXON LINE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING...ARRIVING AT KCHO BETWEEN 16 AND 20Z. HAVE TIMED NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AS 12Z AT KMRB...AND BE AT KCHO AROUND 16Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL CAP WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AT 15 KNOTS. TIDES RUNNING CLOSE TO PREDICTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...SAR NEAR TERM...SAR SHORT TERM...SAR LONG TERM...DRM AVIATION...SAR MARINE...SAR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-281000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BALTIMORE MD TO HARRISONBURG VIRGINIA. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LESS OF A CHANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MANNING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 116 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>027-029-030- 036>042-050>057-WVZ054-272315- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON- RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG 116 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 ...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING... WARM AND HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS VERY UNSTABLE TODAY...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM BALTIMORE MD TO HARRISONBURG VA MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. THE PRIMARY RISK FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THOSE ENGAGING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY ARE ENCOURAGED TO LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY. MAKE SURE YOUR OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY INCLUDE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. MANNING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 VAZ037-271845- ALBEMARLE VA- 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALBEMARLE COUNTY... AT 218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTH GARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF CHARLOTTESVILLE...OVERTON AND NEWCOMB HALL WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. MANNING
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:48 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind, 3 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency Management reported trees down on power lines and power lines downed in the City of Charlottesville.
A tree was downed on Route 259 northwest of Broadway, VA.
A tree was downed on Mount Jackson Road between South Middle Road and Tisinger Road west of Mount Jackson, VA.
Emergency Management reported several trees down in Pine Grove, VA.
Penny size hail was reported in Pine Grove, VA.
A tree was downed at Route 620 and Five Forks Road in Woodville, VA.
Law Enforcement reported a large limb on a transformer, downing power lines in Front Royal, VA.
A Trained Spotter reported nickel size hail in Warrenton, VA.
An NWS Employee reported penny size hail in Berryville, VA.
Emergency Management reported a tree down near James Madison Highway and Haymarket Drive.
Power lines were downed in Ashburn, VA.
Several trees were downed between McLean and Tysons Corner.
Emergency Management reported trees down in Arlington, VA.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 27285, 27276, 27277, 27278, 27273, 27279, 27280, 27274, 27275, 27281, 27282, 27283, 27284.