Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, May 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD ARRIVE ON
MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.  THE HIGH SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR REGION DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SLOWLY FROM
THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:30 PM, THERE WAS AN ISOLATED CELL OVER MONROE COUNTY AND
ANOTHER IN SOUTHERN OCEAN COUNTY.  OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS BACK IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS
TO THE WEST.

DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR
FORECAST AREA AT MID AFTERNOON.  WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND,
THOSE VALUES SHOULD CREEP UPWARD DURING THE BALANCE OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE, SURFACE BASED CAPES OVER OUR
REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE WITH SURFACE BASED
LIFTED INDEX VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C.  THERE WAS STILL A
BIT OF A CAP OVER OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS
A RESULT, WELL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION RATHER SLOWLY ON
MONDAY, WEVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOCATIONS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 78 WILL NOT SEE ANY PRECIP ON MONDAY.  THE FRONT SHOULD
PASS THOSE LOCATIONS BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY EVENING, THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND TSTM
ACTIVITY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND ON THE DELMARVA, SOUTH
OF THE CANAL.  OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
PRECIP FREE.  DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.  A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DIG OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE EAST OF IT.  AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP FREE DAYS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  HOWEVER, TEMPS AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST RATHER SLOWLY.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND IT MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT, WEVE
CARRIED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS BEYOND MIDNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF PASSING HVY
SHOWERS/TSTMS.  KRDG AND KABE CLOSEST TO THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR
AREA.  ANY TSTMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR GUST
FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF TAFS TO THE SOUTH.  HEAVIEST TSTMS LAST
EVENING TARGETED KPHL AND KRDG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 34 KT.  SIMILAR
SITUATION TODAY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ONCE AGAIN.  TOP
HONORS FOR THE RAIN WENT TO VORHEES NJ WITH 1.62 INCHES.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLDS HAVE MOVED EAST AND ALLOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPS
TO BE REACHED AND CU IS POPPING UP OVER A GOOD PART OF THE TERMINAL
AREA EXCEPT FOR KACY-KMIV, AND THAT WILL OCCUR SOON.  CONVECTION
OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND IT IS JUST A MATTER TIME.  THERE IS ALSO A
PERIOD OF ABT 2 HRS WITH A TEMPO GROUP AFTER MIDNIGHT.  FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CRAWLS TO SOUTHERN 2 TAF SITES
(KMIV-KACY) BUT CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR WITH THE FRONT NEARBY.

BEGINNING TO SEE WEAK SEABREEZE OVER OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES.
THIS IS THE AREA WHERE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HVY SHOWERS MAY
FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ONCE THE HIGHER CLDS MOVE
OFFSHORE, SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP ALL THE WAY DOWN TO DELAWARE
BEACHES.

PREVAILING WINDS ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UNDER 10KT.  HAVE INDICATED
THE HR IN WHICH SOME TAFS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS, WHETHER FROM TSTM
OVERHEAD OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE
STRING OF VFR DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
NICE MARINE WX TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, BUT HAVE TO
WATCH FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW BUT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HAZY CONDITIONS ON THE
WATER.  IF WE GET THROUGH AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL HOURS ON MONDAY WITH
SOME SHOWERS, REST OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING VERY GOOD ON THE WATER.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND RESIDES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TO FRIDAY.

HIGHEST SEAS WILL ONLY REACH AROUND 4 FT BUT THAT WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND PART OF MONDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE 2 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

WATER TEMPS ARE CLIMBING TO NEAR 70 IN DELAWARE BAY AND IN THE 60S
IN THE NEARSHORE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE KDIX WSR-88D REMAINS DOWN AFTER ATTEMPTS TO MAKE IT OPERATIONAL
EARLIER ON SATURDAY.  PARTS HAVE ARRIVED AND THE TECHNICIANS ARE ON
THE JOB.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS HAVE REACHED 90 DEGREES AND NOT THAT FAR
FROM A MINOR HEAT WAVE OF 3 DAYS AT 90, BUT FELL JUST SHORT ONE OR
TWO DEGREES.  IF YOU GET A CHANCE CHECK OUT OUR WEB SITE UP TOP
REPORT: SUMMER 2007 CONDITIONAL TEMP FORECAST...BY DELISI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION/MARINE/EQUIPMENT/CLIMATE...EBERWINE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007

NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-281000-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
281000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND
NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-281000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.