Winter Weather in Virginia, February 6 to 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD/VRY DRY (XTRMLY RARE TO HV SFC DWPTS AS LO AS 10 BLO ZERO F)
ACRS FA THIS AFTN. THE VRY DRY AMS WL PLAY A LRG PART IN JUST HOW
MUCH PCPN (SN) FM CLIPPER SYS DIVING THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OH (THIS
AFTN) FALLS HERE OVRNGT/ERY WED. ALSO WORKING AGAINST SYS IS DP
WLY FLO...IN COMBO W/ THE MTNS TO OUR W (WHICH WL ACT TO DRY UP
SOME OF THE PCPN AS IT MVS OVR THEM).

ATTM...WDSPRD AREA OF SN FALLING FM WRN WV TO ECNTRL IL...HEADING
ESE. BULK OF PCPN GENLY FOUND ALG/N OF THE 528 1000-500 MB THCKNS
LN...AND USING THAT RULE...WOULD PLC GREATEST THREAT (ALBIET LO)
FOR SN ACCUMS ACRS NRN 1/3RD OF FA. BOTH NAM/GFS BRK UP THE PCPN
CONSIDERABLE AFT MDNGT OVR FA AS SYS TRACKS E OF THE MTNS. QPF
XPCTD TO BE GENLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN IN...AND GIVEN
FLUFF-FACTOR (ABT 15-18 TO 1 SN RATIO)...GIVES MOST PLCS W/
ACCUMS ARND 1 IN...PSBLY 1 TO 2 IN IN HIER TERRAIN OF FLUVANNA AND
LOUISA CTYS. SOME AREAS ALG-S OF A FVX-RIC-MFV...TO THE BRDR...MAY
RECEIVE A DUSTING.

SYS QUIKLY MVS AWAY WED MRNG...LTL BIT OF MODERATION XPCTD DURG
WED AS SKY TURNS P/MSNY. TEMPS REACHING THE 30S/LWR 40S. WK SFC
HI PRES BRKS OFF FM MAIN SFC HI PRES IN CNTRL CANADA...AND MVS
THROUGH THE OH VLY WED NGT/ERY THU...INTO CNTRL MTNS BY EVE.
COLDER AGN WED NGT (LOWS DN INTO THE TEENS/LWR 20S MANY
PLCS)...THEN HI TEMPS THU ABT 2 TO 4 DEGS F COLDER THAN WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT TO PERSIST INVOF ERN CONUS/SE CANADA...KPG XTNDD
COLDER THAN NRML. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES ACRS MDATLC THU NGT. WK
UPR LVL S/W IN STRNG WNWLY FLO ALOFT WISKS FM CNTRL/SRN MTNS (ERY
FRI) TO OFF THE NC CST (BY ERY SAT). BULK OF ANY PCPN XPCTD TO RMN
S OF FA AT THIS TM...MAYBE A PD OF FLURRIES NR VA/NC BRDR DURG
FRI...PSBL LGT PCPN INVOF NE NC LINGERING FRI NGT. OTRW...RMNG DRY
THU NGT THROUGH MON.

VRY COLD PTRN BEGINS TO CHG NEXT WK AS WLY FLO FM PAC BRKS DN RDG
CURRENTLY OUT W. STM SYS ON LATEST GFS/ECMWF TAKING SHAPE INVOF
CNTRL/SRN PLNS (MON)...WL HV TO BE WATCHED FARTHER E BY MID NEXT
WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE FCST PRD. MSTR ASSCTD WITH QUICK MOVG S/W
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SO...BASICALLY WENT WITH P6SM -SN (FLURRIES) AT
RIC AFTR 05Z...4SM -SN (MVFR IN LGT SNOW) AT SBY THRU 12Z). DUE  TO
VRY DRY AIRMAS IN PLACE...CIGS REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. CLIPPER EXITS
OFFSHORE AFTR 15Z. DCRG CLDNS WITH SOME GUSTY N WNDS THRU 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TEMPORARILY DECREASING LATE THIS AFTN/EVE AS LOW LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE WATERS...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES TNGT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WAVEWATCH MODEL SUGG
ANOTHER (BRIEF) PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS (FOR
WINDS AND SEAS) LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WED AS MODERATE LOW
LVL CAA SURGE SETS IN. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY WED EVE AS
THE CAA SURGE WANES BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE FOR SEAS TO COME
DOWN BLO THE 5 FT SCA CRITERIA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW REGIME CONTS THRU END OF WEEK BUT MODELS SUGG
REMAINING BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.

NC...NONE.
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VAZ074>077.

     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-063-064.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>633.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...44
MARINE...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-670-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-
VAZ060>062-065>073-078>100-071000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC FROM
20 TO 40 NM-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-
AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-
LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-
GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-
YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-
NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
341 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
CHESAPEAKE BAY...SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE
MID ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE RICHMOND METRO
AREA...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER POINTS FURTHER
SOUTH. ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW FLURRIES BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-063-064-074>077-071000-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-HANOVER-CAROLINE-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-
341 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AN AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PALMYRA TO HANOVER...HEATHSVILLE AND OCEAN CITY. A QUICK
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLICE ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY AROUND ONE...TO AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO FLURRIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE WBCWSWAKQ.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
SNOW REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ANY AND ALL REPORTS
ARE APPRECIATED.

05