High Surf in Hawaii, February 6 to 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE FEB 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI AND OAHU ON WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND AROUND FRIDAY. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES...FOLLOWED BY COOL AND DRIER NORTHERLY WIND. TRADE
WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MERGING PAIR OF FRONTAL CLOUD BANDS APPROACHED THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THEY APPEARED RATHER
WEAK SOUTH OF 30N. CONVERGENCE BANDS FORMED IN THE WIND FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE FEATURES. THE BAND OVER OAHU HAD PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A
SIXTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ISLAND...BUT SHOWED SOME WEAKENING. THE
REST OF THE STATE WAS RELATIVELY CLEAR.

MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL IN PREDICTING THE MERGED FRONTAL
BAND TO REACH KAUAI ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A WEAKER FRONT
AND A SLOWER PASSAGE...AND TOGETHER WITH THE VISIBLE WEAKNESS OF THE
MERGING BANDS SUGGEST THAT PERHAPS THE FRONT MAY NOT REACH THE BIG
ISLAND AS A COHERENT FEATURE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS BOUND TO PRODUCE
SOME RAINFALL...EXCESSIVE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER
HAND...A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WIND SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT MOST OF THE
STATE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND ON
THURSDAY.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLIES WILL TRANSITION TO
TRADES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MORE TYPICAL TRADE-WIND WEATHER MAY
HAVE A CHANCE TO SET UP BEFORE THE STORM TRACK BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
TO THE AREA AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A PAIR OF LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE FIRST ONE WILL PEAK TODAY AND THE SECOND ON THURSDAY. THE FIRST
SWELL WILL POSSESS OPEN-OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS APPROACHING 12 FEET...
PRODUCING SURF HEIGHTS NEAR THE WARNING LEVEL...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL INUNDATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT INTO FRIDAY FOR NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES OF MOST SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE KONA
COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND LATER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALSO IS IN
EFFECT FOR COMBINED SEAS EXCEEDING 10 FEET IN MANY AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH-FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU
MOLOKAI AND MAUI THROUGH 4 PM FRIDAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR WEST-FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND
MOLOKAI THROUGH 4 PM FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS AND CHANNELS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY
AND PAILOLO CHANNEL.

&&

RYSHKO