Winter Storm in Vermont, January 19 to 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
444 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT THIS
TIME WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
...SO EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE
GONE WARMER THAN MOS MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AS ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT FOR AREAS THAT WILL
RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

ON SATURDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY. WILL ALSO KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY...WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE
GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BUT WILL
STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT
WILL REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 29 BELOW EXPECTED. AGAIN...LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS. THE BRISK WINDS WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE
TEENS ON SUNDAY...AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S ON MONDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONAL/COLD TEMPS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING TO EAST AT START OF EXTENDED...WITH SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
SOUTH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH WARM AIR TO
ADVECT. COLD FRONT SET TO SLIP THROUGH AROUND MID WEEK...AND WILL BE
FOCUS FOR NEW PRECIP. HEIGHTS FALL WEDNESDAY...THEN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES 00Z FRI ALONG CAPE
COD. DURING THIS PERIOD...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND NORTH
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ENTIRE DURATION.
BELIEVE IT WILL BE SIMILAR IN APPEARANCE TO CURRENT SITUATION WITH
LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL. GENERALLY ACCEPTED HPC
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT RAISED POPS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THEY DROPPED
BELOW CHANCE CATEGORY. NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN AFTER ABOUT 04Z EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ENOUGH
FOR MVFR THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD AT 18Z. BIGGER FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE TIMING OF WIND INCREASE...AND INTENSITY. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED
TO NW ALL TAF SITES AS OF 21Z...AND WILL INCREASE OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS. WENT WITH 10G20KT THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN AFT 04Z
INCREASED TO 20G30KT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU 18Z.
&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
429 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-200930-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
429 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL
AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING THE REGION A DUSTING UP TO 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOWFALL. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND WESTERN FACING SLOPES...AS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL MOVE INTO
FAR NORTHERN MAINE BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT...IS
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALSO SET UP STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 40
MPH...DANGEROUS COLD WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY. ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED IF PATTERN CONTINUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND IN ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON.