Ice Storm in Texas, January 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
441 AM MST FRI JAN 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND NORTH
WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND THIS MORNING. MOST PLACES NORTH OF LAS CRUCES WILL SEE
SNOW...WHILE LAS CRUCES AND DEMING WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AND EL PASO WILL SEE GENERALLY RAIN THIS MORNING. IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MORE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SO ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. SATURDAY WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE REBOUNDING SOME ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
ARRIVE ON MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAYBE YOUVE HEARD THE EXPRESSION...ITS TO COLD TO SNOW...WELL
FOR EL PASO THIS MORNING WE ARE...TO WET FOR SNOW. MOST LOCATIONS
AROUND THE CWA HAVE DEW POINTS AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES. THIS MAKES
SNOW MUCH MORE LIKELY FOR THESE LOCATIONS...BUT THE CITY OF EL
PASO GENERALLY HAS DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. YOU CANT
DROP THE TEMPERATURE BELOW THE DEW POINT...SO EL PASO WILL HAVE
TO WAIT ON SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OR EAST. WE
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AS HEAVY SNOW STILL
LOOKS GOOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TODAY. WHILE A MIX
LOOKS GOOD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA. HUDSPETH COUNTY STILL LOOKS
GOOD TO HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE PROBLEM AREA WILL BE EL PASO
AND TO A LESSER EXTEND LAS CRUCES. BOTH DEMING AND LAS CRUCES
HAVE DEW POINTS AT OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING AND ALAMOGORDO ALSO
HAS DEW POINTS BELOW FREEZING SO THOSE LOCATION LOOK GOOD TO HAVE
A RAIN SNOW MIX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EL PASO WITH ITS DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY WITH
MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY THE AFTERNOON EL PASO
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX TO JOIN LAS CRUCES AND DEMING.
BY THIS EVENING EVERYBODY SHOULD BE INTO A SNOW REGIME. BY
SATURDAY MORNING MOST LOWLAND LOCATION WILL SEE ANY WHERE FROM 1
T0 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXCEPT TCS WHICH COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 6
INCHES OF SNOW. 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOKS GOOD FOR SILVER CITY AND 6 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR CLOUDCROFT.

THE REASON FOR ALL THIS INTERESTING WEATHER IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
JUST SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO. THE LOW IS PULLING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC...WHILE AT THE SURFACE COLDER AIR
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS WAS FILTERING IN TO THE AREA. PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS HAD THE COLD AIR ROARING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST...BUT THIS JUST DOESNT SEEM TO BE THE CASE. AS A MATTER OF
FACT IT SEEMS LIKE THE COOLER AIR IS ACTUALLY FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH. SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE COOLER AND LOWER DEW
POINT AIR TO DO THEIR WORK. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM COLORADO INTO THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SET UP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP THE
SOUTHWEST IN COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAKDOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z TO 20/12Z
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE
MAINLY SNOW BY MORNING...WITH THE SOUTHERN REGIONS SEEING RAIN
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING RAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...SENDING CONDITIONS INTO THE
IFR CATEGORY. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 37  27  33  26  42 /  90  80  50  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA TX        35  25  33  26  42 / 100  80  50  10   0
LAS CRUCES              35  25  33  26  43 /  90  80  50  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              34  24  35  25  45 / 100  80  50  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              21  18  21  13  29 / 100  90  60  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   34  25  33  20  44 /  90  80  50  10   0
SILVER CITY             28  23  29  20  37 /  90  80  70  10   0
DEMING                  34  26  36  26  45 /  80  80  50  10   0
LORDSBURG               34  26  33  25  46 /  80  70  50  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HEAVY SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ022-023-025.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ024-030>032.

TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR TXZ055.

     ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR TXZ056.

&&

15/23