Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS BACKED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A STRONG UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING INTO WRN GA WITH BETTER
FORCING STARTING TO AFFECT THE WRN CWFA. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NE GA.

WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY IN WESTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WITH SOLID CHANCE IN EASTERN
SECTIONS THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR...THE GFS BACKS THE LLVL FLOW
TMRW AFTN WITH SB-CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FA. THE NAM IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH VERY
LITTLE CAPE REMAINING IN THE EAST BY AFTN. WL HOLD ON TO LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTN
HRS...THOUGH WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WARMING AS MUCH AS THEY
ARE...THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT NOTHING WILL HAPPEN AT ALL.
UPPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUN
SHOULD WARM MANY AREAS TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WED NIGHT...HPC FAVORS THE QUICKER NAM WITH THE PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ON WED. USING THE NAM COMBINED WITH THE SREF
I WILL DROP POPS FOR THE CWA BY 0Z THU. THIS WILL PUT THE FA UNDER A
INCREASINGLY DRY AND CALM AIR MASS. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND WEAK
CAA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE L50S IN THE MTN COUNTIES AND
L60S EAST.

THU...H5 RIDGE AXIS RIPPLES OVER THE CWA BY THE MID MORNING AND H85
TEMPS WARMS A FEW DEGREES. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW
DEWPOINTS AND DRY AIR BELOW 10 KFT SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL DIURNAL
CU THU AFTERNOON. STRONG INSOLATION AND ONGOING LLVL WAA SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 80S IN THE MTNS AND U80S TO L90S EAST.
GIVEN THE DRY ATMOS AND RIDGING MOS POPS SUPPORT A FORECAST NEAR
ZERO PERCENT.

THU NIGHT...LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. I WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN VALUES
EXPECTED FOR THU MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC AND GFS GUIDANCE WILL BE USED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT H5 S/W RIDGING ALONG A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL OCCUR
ON FRI. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MTNS. I WILL
REDUCE POPS TO NEAR ZERO AND ADVERTISE HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FLATTEN OVER THE CWA AS A SHARP S/W TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC FEATURES REMAIN WEAK AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS MINIMAL. MOISTURE PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER THE RIDGETOPS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. I WILL PRESERVE THE SCHC MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

SUN...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TIME THE S/W TROF AXIS TO PASS
OVER THE CWA DURING THE DAY. GFS QPF ON THE 6Z RUN APPEAR DRIVEN BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER...PLUME AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WILL CONTINUE TO PAINT
THE HIGHER ELEVATION WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

MON AND TUES...PREDICTABILITY DECREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED SFC FRONT AND THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. I WILL FAVOR CLIMATOLOGY AND ADVERTISE A SCHC OF
SHRA/TSRA MON AND TUES AFTERNOON. PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW ADDITIONAL QPF
OCCURRING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE RETURN OF A H5 RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION HAS CAUSED MOST
TAF SITES TO ALREADY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS...LEADING TO LOCAL
STABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF MOST
SITES...OR OVER SITES SUCH AS KAVL...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY BE KCLT DUE TO HEALTHY CELLS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN MIDLANDS AND ERN UPSTATE OF SC
THROUGH EVENING.

AWAY FROM CONVECTION...LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY OVER 10 KFT. LOWER VFR CEILINGS SHOULD FILL IN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT...WITH A LOWERING MVFR DECK
LIKELY AT KAVL WHEN FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER VALLEY AFTER 08Z.

PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DRY FAIRLY RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT BY MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MAINLY EAST OF KCLT LATE WED BEFORE DRIER
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN KEEP DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE THU THROUGH SAT. BRIEF EARLY MORNING MVFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL EACH DAY...AND HAZE COULD
AFFECT SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT DEWPOINTS COULD MIX OUT INTO
THE MID 40S IN THE NC MTNS AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THIS IS MUCH LOWER
THAN THE MOST IMPLIES. I HAVE GONE WAY BELOW MOS...BUT I WORRY THAT
I/M STILL TOO HIGH. AS IT STANDS...I HAVE AFTN DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
AROUND 30...AND A FEW UPPER 20S IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR RH/S TO MIX OUT TO AROUND 20 IF THE SOUNDINGS
VERIFY. NNW WIND WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES TOMORROW AFTN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     037-057-069>072-082.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
614 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082-201015-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
614 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             3 SSE HARTWELL          34.31N 82.91W
06/18/2007  E0.75 INCH       HART               GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL TO THE SE OF HARTWELL.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

SCZ004-005-010-192100-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE...
SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS AND WESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIR PLAY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF HARTWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TOWNVILLE...PENDLETON...FAIR PLAY...LAKE HARTWELL...CLEMSON AND
  CENTRAL.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING CORDED TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

NCZ071-SCZ009-192100-
MECKLENBURG-YORK-
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN YORK AND SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 421 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WYLIE...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF ROCK HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE WYLIE BY 430 PM EDT.
  CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY 445 PM.
  PAW CREEK BY 500 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

SCZ002-005-010-192145-
ANDERSON-GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
457 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANDERSON AND PICKENS
COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE JOCASSEE TO 7
MILES NORTH OF ANDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  WILLIAMSTON...TABLE ROCK...POWDERSVILLE...PIEDMONT...PICKENS...
  PELZER...NORRIS...LIBERTY...EASLEY AND DACUSVILLE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-SCZ001-004-192300-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HABERSHAM-HART-OCONEE
MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
559 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HABERSHAM...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN RABUN...SOUTHWESTERN OCONEE...STEPHENS AND
WESTERN HART COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
DEMOREST TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARTIN TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VANNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARTIN BY 605 PM EDT.
  TOCCOA BY 610 PM EDT.
  LAVONIA BY 615 PM EDT.
  LAKE HARTWELL BY 630 PM EDT.
  FAIR PLAY BY 640 PM EDT.
  WESTMINSTER BY 650 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
704 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

NCZ037-192345-
DAVIE-
704 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF COOLEEMEE...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOCKSVILLE BY 710 PM EDT.
  FARMINGTON BY 735 PM EDT.
  BERMUDA RUN BY 740 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LANE