Tornado and Hail in Kansas, June 19, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS WHEN AND WHERE SEVERE STORMS
WILL MATERIALIZE.  A SECONDARY CONCERN IS HIGH QPF POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 19Z SHOWED AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WELL INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING INTO AN EASTERLY FLOW
JUST OFF THE SURFACE.  AN UPSLOPE AFFECT HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL
DAY...STARTING WITH DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.  THE MORNING DDC
SOUNDING SHOWED OVER 2500 J/KG OF CAPE NEAR DDC...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY OVER MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT LINGERED ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS IN THE HYS/RSL
AREA.  THIS CREATED A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY IN THE CLEAR
AREA NEAR THE FOG...FORMING A BOUNDARY FOR MOISTURE TO CONVERGE
UPON.  THE FIRST STORM OF THE DAY FIRED NW OF HLC ABOUT 16Z AND
DRIFTED EAST INITIALLY...THEN SOUTH.  THINK THIS STORM IS A SIGN OF
WHAT IS TO COME.

DID NOT CHANGE MUCH TO THE GOING FORECAST.  30 POPS SW...40 N AND
W...AND 50 IN THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA DUE TO THE HIGHEST DEW
POINTS AND DEEPER MOISTURE.  WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE
EVERYWHERE...THINKING PENNY-SIZE HAIL WILL BE EASILY REALIZED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GOLFBALLS...AND STRONG WINDS COULD POSSIBLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS. SOME STRONG ROTATION HAS ALREADY BEEN WITNESSED NORTH
OF OUR CWA...SO BRIEF TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM WILL BE SLOW...SO HEAVY RAIN IS PROBABLY THE
GREATEST CONCERN...SINCE MANY PARTS OF OUR CWA HAVE RECEIVED COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3 WEEKS. OUR EASTERN TIER OF 2
COUNTIES STILL REMAINS WITH THE LOWEST FFG LEVELS...BUT EVEN OTHER
AREAS ARE QUITE SATURATED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF ON HEAVY QPF FOR US...AND DONT QUITE UNDERSTAND THIS AS THE 12Z
DDC SOUNDING HAD 1.33 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.  IF A STORM
INITIATES...IT COULD DUMP 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER ANY ONE SPOT...IF
MOVEMENT IS SLOW.  ALL INDICATIONS FROM THE 7H FLOW IS 15 TO 20 KT
FOREWORD MOVEMENT IS ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED.

STAYED WITH THE 20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION AND IN
PLACE INSTABILITY AS THE AFTERNOON HEATS UP.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND REASONABLE.  UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NT.  MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SOAR TO THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 90S ON
THURSDAY.

DAYS 3-7...

GENERAL FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES.

NUMERICAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) GENERALLY AGREE WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD WHICH
WILL ALLOW 850MB DEWPOINTS TO PUSH UP INTO THE TEENS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS TENDS TO INDICATE SMALL UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PATTERN THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SAT/SUN. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT AND A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THURSDAY.
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATH AND CAPPING DUE
TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA COULD BE LIMITING
FACTORS. LEFT POPS/WX UNCHANGED.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE PERIOD WILL ALSO ALLOW 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD
WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS PRODUCING SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOSTLY
EAST TOWARDS KICT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOES EXIST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY DROP
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LOCALLY FOR BOTH CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  91  70  93 /  50   0  20  10
GCK  69  91  68  94 /  40  20  30  10
EHA  69  93  67  95 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  70  92  69  93 /  30   0  20  10
HYS  68  91  69  92 /  40   0  20  10
P28  71  91  71  92 /  50   0  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN12/32/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-201015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
514 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007 /414 AM MDT TUE JUN 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM WEST
OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE LINE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

DURING THE EARLY EVENING THESE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AFTER SUNSET THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS WILL
DECREASE BUT GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC