Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREAS OF SHRA/ISO TS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN/NC LINE. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MTNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF LIKELY COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS AND NRN
FOOTHILLS UNTIL 0Z. SCT COVERAGE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...TUCKED WITHIN
THE LARGER SCALE LIFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.

WEDS...CLOUD COVER MAY BECOME SCT AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...NEARLY THE SAME AT KGSP. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS
MAY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. CAPES SHOULD INCREASE BY A FEW
100 J/KG AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT BY MID AFTERNOON. I WILL
PLACE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND ADVERTISE
SCT COVERAGE ACROSS SC AND NE GA. USING A BLEND OF MOS...MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD FALL AROUND CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK QUITE GOOD THURSDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS...WITH A
COMMISERATE INCREASE IN CAPE. BOTH MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SPORT A
COUPLED JET OVER THE REGION...WITH MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS...LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE VERY STEEP AND LAYER RH/S LOOK HIGH. THEREFORE THE
THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOESN/T LOOK THAT GREAT...THOUGH
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW FINALLY OPENS UP AND LIFTS NE INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH ENERGY LAGS BEHIND
THE MAIN WAVE...BUT IN LOOKING AT THE SREF...THE MEAN TROF POSITION
IS LOCATED TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS/S SOLUTION OF INCREASING
NVA IN THE AFTERNOON AND A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED ATMOSPHERE SEEMS
REASONABLE. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LEE AND
LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEG
WARMER THAN ON THU AS H8 TEMPS WARM AROUND 2 DEG C.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWRD ON SAT...MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST
BY SUN EVENING. THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY THEN REMAINS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY UPPER TROF PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SEWRD TOWARD THE
REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND
LINGERING ACROSS THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA...AND A WARM MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...SOLID CHANCE POPS
SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH MON. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY NCEP
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE PROB OF PRECIP. TEMPS COOL A BIT BY THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHRA AT KAVL
AND KHKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...I WILL
INCLUDE VCSH UNTIL 6Z. SKY COVER MAY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS DRY
AIR WRAPS AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. BY 9Z...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 2-3 DEGREES. HIGH SFC HUMIDITY...LIGHT
WINDS...AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY PROMOTE MTN VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WED.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
CLOUDS...MORNING FOG (ESP AT KAVL) AND AT LEAST SCATTERED LATE DAY
CONVECTION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-250815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.