A particularly strong upper level disturbance moved northward across the Guadalupe Mountains and into Eddy County. With abundant moisture in place, heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in southeastern New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
A particularly strong upper level disturbance moved northward across the Guadalupe Mountains and into Eddy County. With abundant moisture in place, heavy rainfall led to flash flooding in southeastern New Mexico.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 11:51 AM MST, 9 hours 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 151 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007 .SHORT TERM... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CWA TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA. A THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA. A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT WITH LI/S OF AROUND -3 AND CAPES APPROACHING 1000...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...WITH PW/S OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS NEAR THE THETA-E RIDGE. WILL RAISE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE 50S IN THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. .LONG TERM... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS WILL EXPAND WEST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BY LATE SATURDAY. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO CARRY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT MAKING IT INTO THE CWA... HOWEVER IT MAY REACH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON TUESDAY. ANY AFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT COOLING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MAY BE IN THE VICINITY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 80S WITH 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 90S ALONG THE BORDER AND IN THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A FEW 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 86 67 89 68 / 20 20 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 86 65 90 66 / 30 40 10 10 DRYDEN TX 88 69 91 69 / 10 20 10 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 88 67 91 68 / 20 20 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 81 62 85 63 / 30 50 20 10 HOBBS NM 85 66 91 67 / 20 30 10 10 MARFA TX 81 57 85 56 / 20 30 10 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 67 90 69 / 20 20 10 0 ODESSA TX 86 69 90 69 / 20 20 10 0 WINK TX 90 71 95 70 / 20 20 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 99/99
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 142 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-211845- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 142 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007 /1242 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF A TATUM... HOBBS...PECOS...ALPINE...PRESIDIO LINE. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH... SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 613 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007 NMZ029-033-034-210015- CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY- 513 PM MDT THU SEP 20 2007 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT... THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR WESTERN LEA COUNTY. AT 511 PM MDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF TATUM TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF BUCKEYE. THE STRONGEST STORM WITHIN THIS LINE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 12 MILES SOUTH OF BUCKEYE. THE LINE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...INCLUDING THOSE IN TATUM AND LOVINGTON...SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS.
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 191 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:28 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotters reported widespread flooding in the city of Carlsbad. As much as two feet of water flowed across city intersections.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 54557.