An EF-1 tornado briefly touched down five miles west of Mayo.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TAE wrote it up.
An EF-1 tornado briefly touched down five miles west of Mayo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 20, 8:48 PM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 948 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 .DISCUSSION...GULF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ABOUT 90 MI WSW OF ST. PETE THIS EVENING. AN IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BAND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY UP THE W COAST OF FL THIS EVENING, WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE COMING OUT OF THE TAMPA NWS OFFICE. CLOSER TO THE STORMS CENTER, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION SWIRL AROUND THE CENTER. BUT THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH NO LIGHTNING NOTED. LOOKING AT THE MYRIAD SHORT RANGE DYNAMIC MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, WE DO NOT FIND THAT MUCH DISAGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. IN FACT, THE GFS, ECMWF, NAM, WRF AND RUC ARE ALL WITHIN ABOUT 20-40NM OF ONE ANOTHER WITH THE PREDICTED LOW CENTER POSITION AT 12Z FRI. THE MODELS REMAIN WELL CLUSTERED BY 00Z SAT. WE RAISED POPS OVER THE SERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE BAND. IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIXIE COUNTY. LOW POPS OVER THE NWRN ZONES WILL PRIMARILY BE FOR LIGHT RAIN. CONCERNING THE NATURE OF THE LOW, A RECON FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM DID NOT FIND ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH IT DID FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. IF WE BEGIN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE CENTER, A SUBTROPICAL (MORE LIKELY) OR TROPICAL SYSTEM (LESS LIKELY) COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF THAT HAPPENS, WATCHES MAY PROMPTLY BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. && .MARINE...BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS, OUR CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WE WENT WITH THE GFS SUITE, CORRECTING DOWNWARD AS NECESSARY, BUT ARE NOW SHOWING WINDS NEAR 30 KT BY LATE FRI. WILL MENTION GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WE ARE ALSO TRENDING OUR SEA HEIGHT FORECAST UPWARD. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE WAVEWATCH NUMBERS, THESE SEEM ENTIRELY POSSIBLE, SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE REVISED UPWARD. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SET UP HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM DESTIN TO THE PANAMA CITY BEACHES. && .AVIATION...EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF LIFTS OFF TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE AT THE TLH AND PFN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST SUSTAINED IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 346 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 SHORT TERM...TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NON-TROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA. RADAR IMAGERY AND THE QSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) NEAR 26N84W. CONVECTION AROUND THIS LLCC REMAINS DISORGANIZED...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS EVOLUTION TO A WARM CORE STRUCTURE IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE PHASE DIAGRAM FROM THE GFDL MODEL. JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE N.E. TO TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE LA/MS COAST. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA WITH THE WINDS BEGINNING TO VEER AROUND TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AND REMAINING IN THE MODERATE RANGE INLAND AND INCREASING TO FRESH TO LOW-END STRONG BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LIKELY POPS ALONG SOME OF OUR COASTAL AREAS...HOWEVER WE ARE NOT SEEING A LOT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY REDUCE THESE SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF DESTIN JUST BEYOND THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THE MAIN IMPACT ON OUR AREA WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST TO JUST INLAND WHERE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS COULD REACH TO NEAR GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW CONSOLIDATED THIS SYSTEM GETS AND WHERE THE CPA TO OUR AREA IS. ALSO...BEING IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM UPON LANDFALL...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE LA/MS COAST WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA . DURING THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY INLAND AS FAR AS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIKELY POPS. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY SUMMER LIKE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT POTENT AND MAY HAVE TROUBLE CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 72 85 73 88 73 / 50 60 40 50 30 PANAMA CITY 72 85 75 86 75 / 50 70 60 60 40 DOTHAN 68 84 71 87 71 / 30 50 40 50 30 ALBANY 69 85 70 88 70 / 30 50 30 40 20 VALDOSTA 71 86 72 89 71 / 40 50 30 40 30 CROSS CITY 73 87 72 89 73 / 50 50 30 50 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE LEGS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && AVIATION...BARRY CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...GIBBS/MROCZKA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 609 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 ALZ065>069-FLZ007-009>011-013-016-017-019-026-029-GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161-211000- COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON- JACKSON-CALHOUN-GADSDEN-LEON-MADISON-LIBERTY-LAFAYETTE-QUITMAN- CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL- IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE- DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER- 609 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 /509 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVY IN NATURE LATER TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE TO SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER PASSES TO THE COAST WILL DETERMINE THE INLAND EXTENT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. FLZ008-012-014-015-018-027-028-034-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775- 211000- COASTAL WALTON-BAY-GULF-FRANKLIN-JEFFERSON-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-DIXIE- APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 609 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2007 /509 AM CDT THU SEP 20 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL ZONES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUB TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND PERSONS LIVING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND COASTLINES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND HEAVY IN NATURE THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES INTO FRIDAY FOR WINDS AND SEAS. AS THE LOW MOVES TO A POSITION SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES. THIS MORE SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW LARGER WAVES TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NEAR SHORE ZONES AND BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW TODAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER A STRONGER THAN USUAL LONG SHORE CURRENT HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS IS NOT A RIP CURRENT BUT IT CAN CARRY SWIMMERS A DISTANCE DOWNSTREAM IN A SHORT TIME. ALSO...THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL OFFSHORE WINDS POSE A DANGER TO PEOPLE USING FLOTATION DEVICES AS THEY HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO GET CARRIED OUT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE ALLOWING LARGER WAVES AND GUSTY WINDS TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BEACHES OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ADDITION TO THE BIG BEND. EVENTUAL WAVE HEIGHT AND PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM HOWEVER SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION IS NOT OUR OF THE QUESTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE LOW PASSES. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGER THAN NORMAL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AT THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BEACHES WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES THE BEST ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. 14-MROCZKA
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1216 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 FLZ029-210500- LAFAYETTE- 1216 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR LAFAYETTE COUNTY... * UNTIL 100 AM EDT AT 1214 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BELL...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1219 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 FLZ028-029-210500- LAFAYETTE-TAYLOR- 1219 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR LAFAYETTE AND TAYLOR COUNTIES... * UNTIL 100 AM EDT AT 1214 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF MAYO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. RELAY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. BLOCK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
The tornado uprooted large oak trees with debris on State Highway 53 and County Road 351.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Florida, 2007Warnings in Florida, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 60211.