Hail and Damaging Winds in New Mexico, September 10, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 AM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

CORRECTION TO ADD FUTURE PERIODS IN DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE A DAY
CONVECTIONWISE WITH MOISTURE REPLENISHED A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
W...A SLOW MOVING SOMEWHAT SHEARED/STRETCHED SHORT WAVE COMING
SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE E GREAT BASIN AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ABOUT TO BACK INTO NE NM. DECENT ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND CAPE
COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND TERRAIN INDUCED DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...DESPITE SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AT TIMES...AND THE WEAK
FORCING FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE W WHILE THE E WILL BENEFIT FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING
DOWN. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS MID AFTN TO MID EVE IN PULSE FASHION...BUT CAPE IN
VICINITY OF AND BEHIND FRONT NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LOOKING AND
FARTHER W THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM SHOULD
KEEP THINGS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND IN AN ORGANIZED FASHION.
TEMPS WERE KEPT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TUE AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE WED AS POST FRONTAL MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL BE SLOWER TO
RECOVER THAN WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE A MONTH OR TWO AGO. DRIER
PATTERN TO BE THE RULE MID TO LATE WEEK...THOUGH 3RD MAJOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION TO BRING LOW POPS TO PORTIONS OF E FRI OR SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  56  84  54 /  10   5  10   5
GALLUP..........................  85  50  80  47 /  10   5  10  20
GRANTS..........................  84  52  77  47 /  10  20  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  85  56  83  53 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  75  40  73  39 /  20  10  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  50  71  47 /  20  40  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  66  36  67  35 /  50  30  20  10
TAOS............................  75  45  74  41 /  20  20  10   5
SANTA FE........................  78  53  73  50 /  30  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  54  75  51 /  20  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  80  51  78  47 /  20  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  62  78  61 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  84  59  79  54 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  82  56  78  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  59  80  57 /  20  30  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  85  57  80  54 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  46  72  46 /  20  40  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  79  49  74  48 /  30  50  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  55  76  55 /  30  50  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  72  49  68  49 /  40  50  30  30
RATON...........................  69  45  75  45 /  40  30  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  49  72  47 /  40  30  10  10
ROY.............................  72  55  72  53 /  40  30  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  65  50  77  53 /  40  30  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  82  53  79  53 /  40  40  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  55  80  57 /  40  30  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  56  79  57 /  40  50  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  78  55  78  56 /  40  40  20  10
PORTALES........................  80  55  80  56 /  40  40  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  83  61  80  61 /  40  50  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ001>021-026-111200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. ALSO SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN
THIS SAME AREA WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...BRINGING SOME CHANCE
FOR HIGH FLOWS IN OR EVEN MINOR FLOODING OF ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS
AND IN URBAN AREAS MINOR STREET FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

43

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
119 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ004-005-011-102000-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
119 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER NORTHWEST SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...

AT 115 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER NEAR EL PORVENIR. MOVEMENT WAS
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GALLINAS...MANUELITAS...
MINERAL HILL...MONTEZUMA...OJITOS FRIOS AND ROMEROVILLE.

THIS STORM WAS NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
202 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

NMZ004-005-011-102045-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
202 PM MDT MON SEP 10 2007

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...

AT 201 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50
MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF VALMORA TO 8 MILES WEST OF ROMEROVILLE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CHAPELLE...EL
PORVENIR...GALLINAS...LOS MONTOYAS...LOWER COLONIAS AND MANUELITAS.

THESE STORMS WERE NOT PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

DPORTER