Isolated strong to severe storms developed across north Florida during the afternoon and evening as the sea breezes interacted in a moist airmass as a weak trough lifted northward up the Florida peninsula.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Isolated strong to severe storms developed across north Florida during the afternoon and evening as the sea breezes interacted in a moist airmass as a weak trough lifted northward up the Florida peninsula.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 10, 12:58 PM EST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 158 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THIS WEEK... .SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBS SHOW AN AXIS OF ENHANCED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E FROM APPALACHEE BAY THROUGH THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOOKING AT CONDITIONS ALOFT...RUC INDICATES DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH GOES UP TO 500 MB IS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AREA...WHICH WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE LIMITING LAPSE RATES...PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG DOWNBURSTS IF UPDRAFT CAN BE SUPPORTED LONG ENOUGH BEFORE COLLAPSE. THIS WILL AGAIN BE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON DEEP MOISTURE AXIS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING NORTHWARD TUESDAY WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA GETTING IN ON THE LIKELY POPS. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE DEEP MOISTURE MAKES IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES...BUT FEEL STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS INTO THESE AREAS REGARDLESS AND LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED. PWATS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 2.0 INCHES BY THIS TIME WITH GFS INDICATING VALUES AS HIGH AS 2.25. THERMO-DYNAMIC PROFILE SHOWS SIMILAR VALUES TO TODAYS WITH MAINLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. GFS DEVELOPS A WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON WED...ALLOWING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING MOISTURE OUT OF THE REGION AND FAVOR ITS SOLUTION. THIS WILL YIELD CONTINUED PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE TOO RIPE AND EARLY CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT TEMPS AND COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. DIFFERENCES IN MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THU AS NAM HAS LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP MAIN TROUGH AND MOISTURE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH LOWER POPS EXPECTED. WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS LIKELY POPS...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. .LONG TERM...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BATTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED BETWEEN ENCROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE NORTH AND RE- ESTABLISHMENT OF BERMUDA HIGH TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AREAS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH GENERALLY CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...CONDS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR WITH TSRA AT GNV THIS AFTN. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE WILL GO WITH MVFR FOR FOG AT GNV LATE TONIGHT AND KEEP VFR AT OTHER TAF SITES ATTM. SHRA WILL BEGIN EARLIER ON TUESDAY AND WILL SHOW VCSH NLT 15Z. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH 10-15 KT BECOMING SW AT NIGHT OR SSE EACH AFTN THRU FRIDAY...THEN BECOME SE SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 2-3 FT. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTN OTHERWISE SCT STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 90 70 88 / 20 50 40 60 SSI 76 86 75 85 / 30 50 40 60 JAX 73 89 73 88 / 40 70 40 60 SGJ 73 87 73 87 / 50 70 40 60 GNV 71 88 71 89 / 50 70 40 60 OCF 72 88 72 89 / 60 70 40 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && DEESE/TRABERT/KEEGAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000- ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY- CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE- COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)- GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM- ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE- 500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOTION. STORMS WILL GENERALLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX. CARROLL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 322 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ040-102000- MARION- 322 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 400 PM EDT... AT 322 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUNNELLON MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND RAINBOW LAKES ESTATES AND ROMEO THROUGH 400 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. DEESE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 422 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ040-102100- MARION- 422 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT... AT 422 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELLEVIEW TO 5 MILES EAST OF OCKLAWAHA...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEIRSDALE...SUMMERFIELD...LAKE WEIR... OCKLAWAHA... BELLEVIEW... SANTOS... SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...MOSS BLUFF...OCALA AND LYNNE THROUGH 500 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ENYEDI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 428 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ033-038-102130- FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS- 428 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLAGLER AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT... AT 428 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF ESPANOLA...OR 5 MILES WEST OF BUNNELL...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND BUNNELL...ANDALUSIA...ESPANOLA...PALM COAST... MARINELAND...HASTINGS AND CRESCENT BEACH THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. ENYEDI
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 446 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ040-102130- MARION- 446 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN MARION COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT... AT 446 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF WEIRSDALE...OR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMERALDA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUMMERFIELD...LAKE WEIR...OCKLAWAHA...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...MOSS BLUFF...LYNNE AND JUNIPER SPRINGS THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. DEESE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 454 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 FLZ036-037-102145- ALACHUA-PUTNAM- 454 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA AND WESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 545 PM EDT... AT 454 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOCHLOOSA...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CITRA...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND CROSS CREEK...LOCHLOOSA... GROVE PARK...JOHNSON...ORANGE HEIGHTS AND MELROSE THROUGH 545 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. DEESE
The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:08 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Water accumulated on Florida Park Drive and caused some minor flooding on the road. Radar indicated rainfall estimates of 1.5 to 2 inches in the past hour. Observers measured daily rainfall totals of up to 2.25 inches in northwest Palm Coast.
Trees were blown down on power lines near the Palm Coast Library.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 52544, 52545.