Flash Flood and Hail in New Mexico, July 24, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NE NM AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AS OF THIS WRITING AND STILL SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
HANGING ON DESPITE THE TIME OF DAY. SHOULD SEE SOMEWHAT OF AN
UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE TODAY WITH
THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OR SO NOT AS
LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DUE TO THEIR LOCATION
RELATIVE TO THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MOISTURE CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS...BUT NOT QUITE AS
JUICY AS A COUPLE DAYS OR SO AGO. ALSO INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
MOVE FAST ENOUGH...GENERALLY FROM NE TO SW...THAT LONG LASTING
HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT THAT LIKELY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED CASE OF
TRAINING. SO WILL STAY AWAY FROM A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
THIS FCST PACKAGE. EASTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE LESS
ACTIVITY WED COMPARED TO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE. NAM AND GFS BOTH STILL IN FAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR BOUNDARY COMING INTO NE NM
BETWEEN THU AND THU NIGHT SO RAISED POPS A LITTLE FOR NE NM THU
AND MUCH OR E NM FOR THU NIGHT. STILL SHOULD HAVE SOME LEFTOVER
CONVECTION FOR END OF WEEK AND WEEKEND...BUT THAT IS GETTING TOO
FAR AHEAD TO REALLY TIME SUBTLE...PARTLY OR TOTALLY CONVECTION
INDUCED...DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  93  64  93  63 /  30  40  20  30
GALLUP..........................  86  58  85  57 /  30  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  85  57  86  56 /  30  40  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  87  62  89  62 /  40  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  79  49  83  49 /  40  20  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  54  87  56 /  30  20  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  73  46  76  44 /  30  20  20  20
TAOS............................  83  52  89  53 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  83  56  87  58 /  30  20  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  89  59 /  30  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  88  59  91  59 /  30  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  89  67  92  69 /  30  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  66  93  67 /  30  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  63  90  64 /  30  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  64  92  67 /  30  30  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  88  65  91  64 /  30  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  56  80  57 /  30  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  59  85  58 /  30  20  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  61  92  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  54  82  58 /  30  20  10  10
RATON...........................  85  54  88  55 /  10  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  54  85  55 /  20  20  10  20
ROY.............................  83  60  86  61 /  10  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  87  62  91  63 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  88  62  91  62 /  20  20   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  64  95  66 /  20  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  65  90  66 /  20  20   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  87  63  92  64 /  20  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  87  64  90  65 /  30  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  90  66  93  67 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2007

NMZ001>021-026-251200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO COULD
PRODUCE HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED INSTANCES
OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE A FEW ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS TO
RUN HIGH WITH FAST FLOWING AND TURBULENT SURGES OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO
REPORT ANY AREAS OF FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER.

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