Hail in Nebraska, October 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND ON SATURDAY AND TIMING OF
FROPA SATURDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM HAVE LOOKED AT WV AND LIGHTNING
OVERLAY WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS AREA INTO
THE PANHANDLE. WAVE HAS LOST ITS PUNCH ONCE IT CROSSED THE DIVIDE.
MAY BE ENOUGH INTERACTION WITH BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT HAVE
LEFT DRY FOR NOW. MODELS NOT DIGGING WEST COAST SYSTEM AS DEEP
TODAY WITH UPPER JET DRIVING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LIMITING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK. YESTERDAYS MODELS HAD SYSTEM DRIVING INTO 4
CORNERS SAT 12Z NOW INTO THE SALT LAKE VICINITY BUT ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WITH SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH WARD DRIFT SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOW TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY ON SATURDAY
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. PWS CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THE NOSE OF 50+KT LLJ OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BUT INTRODUCED ISO POPS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AND THE LLJ EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED TILL SATURDAY
EVENING AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF WITH SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES ON THE DAY SATURDAY. SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
LINEAR SYSTEM MOVES INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDUCES
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL. AS H5
CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST LIFTING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY A
STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST. SOME UPPER 30S SUNDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PANHANDLE BUT SYSTEM NOT AS COLD.
PRECIPITATION ENDING MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SYSTEM DRIVING
INTO WEST COAST SHARPENS H5 RIDGE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO EASTERN WYOMING WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
LEAVING A SOMEWHAT MIX ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...HOWEVER IF WINDS DO
DECREASE ENOUGH...A STRONG SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LLVL JET WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS WOULD BE
LIGHT AND BACKED TO THE EAST. THESE SAME WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THEY MIX THE INVERSION OUT...WIND GUSTS OVER
35 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE AND MAY BE HAZARD TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

POWER/13

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