Hail in Nebraska, May 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT HAS SET UP AS EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN NEB. ALL INDICATIONS...
CURRENT AND FUTURE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS SWRN NEB. ATM IS WEAKLY
SHEARED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. ACTIVITY PER NAM12 SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND ENCOUNTER A STG LOW LEVEL BUT 06Z. LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.  WARM FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND
HIGH VALUES OF VGP PERHAPS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT BUT
WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. LATEST SWOMCD 0903 INDICATES JUST
LOCALIZED SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL. WE EXPECT THE STORMS TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION BY 12 TO 15Z MONDAY AM.

WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTN ACROSS NRN NEB AS
DEEP 998MB LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED UP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST SUSTAINED 30MPH
SPEEDS DEVELOPING. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT LATE MORNING
EARLY AFTERNOON SUPPORTING DEEP MIXING AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR
GREATER. HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED NEARLY ALL AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING LATE MONDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROF. PARAMETERS WILL BE INPLACE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTL NEBRASKA. ACTIVITY SHOULD GET GOING
LATE AFTN IN THE NW AND SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
EXIT THE TUESDAY MORNING WEST...EAST IN THE AFTN.

SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER SETS IN TUES...WEDS AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 65 TO 75. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLING COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 75 TO 85 RANGE WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
FRI...SAT AND SUNDAY.

A BLEND OF THE NAM12 2M TEMPS AND GUIDANCE WAS USED THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE HPC GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL THEN BE
THE NEXT CONCERN WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE MAINLY KLBF TO KVTN AND
POINTS WEST. AFTER STORMS DIMINISH TONIGHT...SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15-20KT AND A RETURN OF STRATUS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRATUS DIMINISHES BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR
CIGS AFTER 16Z AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 20KT OR GREATER.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-281645-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007 /1038 AM MDT SUN MAY 27 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 1
PM CDT (NOON MDT) ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE. CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN SLOW MOVING STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT ON THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL EXTEND INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK INTO THE 80S BY
WEEKS END AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK/JMC