Winter Weather in Montana, March 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
307 AM MST FRI MAR 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS TO LAST ANOTHER DAY WITH MOST OF
COUNTRY EAST OF THE ROCKIES UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
CENTERED NEAR SW WISCONSIN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BACK INTO THE CWA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW TO OCCASIONAL FALL
IN THE EASTERN ZONES TODAY. WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...MUCH OF
THIS SNOW WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS WELL AND SOME OF THE
DRIFTS COULD GET HEFTY (MAYBE A FEW FEET) AS MUCH OF THE LOOSE
SNOW IN THESE AREAS WAS NOT BLOWN TOO MUCH WHEN IT FELL A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. IT WILL BE RATHER BRISK ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH WIND CHILLS
HOVERING CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND
UPPER RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH
TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD AND FOLLOWED...GOING EVEN COLDER FOR THE SE
ZONES...WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES ALLOWING THE
STORM TRACK TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER RIDGE IS RATHER
DIRTY...SO ADVECTION AND SOME FILTERED MARCH SUNSHINE WILL WARM
THINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS A
BIT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO SOUTHERN SASK BY LATE SUNDAY...SO
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS NE MONTANA. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR THE GENERAL TREND OF THE
EXTENDED. UPPER RIDGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FLATTENS
AS SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. TIMING OF THE WAVES
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
MINIMAL AFFECT FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEAK CLIPPER INDICATED
SOMETIME FOR MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TOWARD
MONTANA BUT OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS MILD.

WITH WESTERLY FLOW WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES AND HOW MUCH THEY
AMPLIFY THE FLOW. WILL KEEP FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW WITH
FLOW REMAINING NEARLY ZONAL WITH LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...
STORM TO THE EAST ONCE AGAIN PUSHING SOME LOW CLOUD AND LIGHT SNOW
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM REDUCED CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM PULLS EVEN FURTHER EAST. RAE

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW