Wildfire in Florida, March 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
129 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DOMINATING MOST OF
THE UNITED STATES IS CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. A SEPARATE
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER LONG ISLAND AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THIS LOW HAS STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE
CONVERGENT LINE OF THE BOUNDARY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST. AFTER TONIGHT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS MORE UNCERTAIN SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW REGION
TO COOL DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
BUT PERHAPS LEVY COUNTY. THEN ON SATURDAY READINGS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL GIVEN CLOUD COVER NEGATING THE WARMING EFFECT OF THE STILL
TROPICAL AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THEN FOR SUNDAY READINGS
WILL GO BELOW NORMAL AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA
DEPARTS ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.
WILL KEEP 20 POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND
SILENT 10 ELSEWHERE THROUGH 06Z.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BRING A DRYING TREND OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS AS THE AREA DRIES OUT...MAINLY ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE
BEGINS MIGRATING EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY WILL
SWING EASTWARD AND HELP IN BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH. BOTH DGEX AND GFS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO BUT GFS HAS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION SHOWING A
INTENSIFYING CLOSED SURFACE LOW EAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL START INTRODUCING SOME 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND WAIT FOR
UPCOMING MODEL UPDATES BEFORE INCORPORATING MORE POPS AND/OR CHANGES
TO CURRENT GRIDS.

EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP BELOW CLIMO AS THE COLD AIRMASS DESCENDS UPON
FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...THEN A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP IN
MODIFYING THE COLD AIRMASS BY BRINGING WARMER AND MOIST AIR FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN. BY THURSDAY TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK TO NEAR OR AT CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE 1000-3000 FEET RANGE AS A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...MAINLY OVER THE TAF SITES OF
TPA...PIE AND SRQ THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FMY AND
RSW MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN BOUNDARY
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL DROP HEADLINES UP THERE. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HOWEVER...HAVE WINDS IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE BOTH IN
THE BAY AND IN THE GULF WATERS. WILL HEADLINE FOR THESE WINDS. BY
MORNING FRONT SHOULD LOSE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO WEAKEN WINDS
BACK BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. NEXT SURGE WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL FORCE THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  71  53  67 /  40  50  30  20
FMY  68  81  61  71 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  63  71  54  66 /  35  50  30  30
SRQ  65  75  57  67 /  30  40  30  30
BKV  57  64  45  65 /  50  50  25  20
SPG  64  69  56  65 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
813 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048-049-021600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-
813 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF
LEVY DOWN TO PASCO THROUGH THE MORNING.

STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION IN THE BAY AND NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FLZ050>052-055>057-060>062-065-021600-
PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-
DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
813 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
COUNTIES AROUND AND INLAND OF TAMPA BAY AND ALSO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS.

STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL ALSO POSE A HAZARD TO MARINERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WATERS BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION IN THE BAY AND NEAR SHORE WATERS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
743 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

FLZ039-021400-
LEVY-
743 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2007

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH...WILL AFFECT
MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN LEVY COUNTY INCLUDING BRONSON...OTTER
CREEK AND WILLISTON...UNTIL 900 AM EST. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

MORNING COMMUTERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN DRIVING
THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN
YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES. WHEN USING WIPERS...TURN ON HEADLIGHTS.
AVOID DRIVING THROUGH PUDDLES THAT COULD HIDE POTHOLES OR CAUSE
HYDROPLANING. MAKE SURE YOUR HEADLAMPS...TIRES...AND WIPERS ARE IN
GOOD CONDITION.

SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE IN WEATHER RELATED AUTOMOBILE ACCIDENTS
EACH YEAR... MANY DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND WET ROADS.

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