A cold front initiated severe thunderstorm development during the early evening hours of October 17th. with flash flooding continuing into the 18th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
A cold front initiated severe thunderstorm development during the early evening hours of October 17th. High winds caused some minor damage across northwest Missouri...with flash flooding continuing into the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 16, 5:35 AM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... /406 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH BROUGHT THE WET WEATHER TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT HAS ENDED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY 00Z TOP SOUNDING REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW H825 INVERSION RESULTING STRATUS DECK ROTATING AROUND AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW. MODEST SFC WINDS SEEM TO BE KEEPING FOG DEVELOPMENT TO A MINIMUM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LESSENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHERE SFC FLOW IS NOT AS BRISK AWAY FROM STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...CLOUDS ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER. QUICK CHANGES ON THE WAY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS STOUT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING AS 40-45 KT LLJ DEVELOPS TRANSPORTING RICHER LLVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60 SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS ALONG WITH 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWING H85 DEWPOINT TEMPS NEAR 13-15C...THEREFORE WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO ADVECT DECENT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT PREMATURE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH RAIN WILL REACH THE AREA BY 12Z. MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND HAVE UPPED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CATEGORICAL BY THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING AND RAPID MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN EXPECTED. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH SVR THREAT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS 95KT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE PLACING THE AREA IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS SHOULD ESTABLISH A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL BE ACHIEVED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING TAKES PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS COMBINED WITH APPROACHING LARGE SCALE LIFT WOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY. MAIN CONCERN IS WILL THIS ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER UNTIL IT REACHES THE AREA. GIVEN MID LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 50-75 KTS...STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY QUICK AND CERTAINLY POSES THE THREAT OF REACHING EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI BY THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED...LOW LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL RAPIDLY SURGE A DRYLINE BULGE INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ONLY ADDING TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION PUSHING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KTS CERTAINLY POINT TOWARD SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH TIME AS POCKET OF -19C H5 AIR OVERSPREADS CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...PROMOTING THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...NAM PROGGING 50 KT...NEAR 180 DEGREE ORIENTED LLJ TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY 00-03Z THURSDAY WITH SFC WINDS MAINTAINING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT GIVEN SFC LOW LOCATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. ASSUMING BL REMAINS WELL MIXED INTO THE EVENING HOURS...STRENGTH OF LLJ AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WITH TIME SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SUPERCELLS THAT PERSISTS. GIVEN LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND STORM SPEED...A LONG TRACK TORNADO IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LLJ BEGINS TO VEER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. THIS BRINGING AN INHERENT RISK OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF AFOREMENTIONED JET. IN ADDITION...KEEPING IN MIND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL ONLY ADD TO THE RISK OF FLOODING. EVEN THOUGH PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE...SVR THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL GIVEN INSTABILITY ISSUES AND PLACEMENT OF STORM INITIATION. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE THE HIGHER THREAT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION REACHING THE AREA EXISTS BEFORE NOCTURNAL CONCERNS PRESENT THEMSELVES. UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONCERN OF STRATUS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...DIFFICULT TO FIND MUCH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THINKING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH BE A STRATIFORM RAIN/DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS DECK. OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWEAKING SAT HIGH TEMPS TO MESH WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AS UPPER RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA COUPLED WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL WINDS AND WARMING H85 TEMPS. DEROCHE && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE BACK EDGE OF VFR CEILINGS WILL CLEAR THE KANSAS CITY TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS EXPECTED AT WORST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STJ WILL SEE A BROKEN VFR CEILING OFF AND ON INTO THE LATE MORNING BEFORE TOTALLY LOSING THE VFR CEILINGS. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS KS TONIGHT AND WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING AT THE SAME TIME LOOKS LIKE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO SET UP BY LATE EVENING AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM SO BROUGHT IN SOME LOW MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. MJ && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 547 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-171100- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 547 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND AFFECTS AREAS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AREA RECEIVES ADEQUATE SUN....WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG AND WEST OF A OLATHE TO BUTLER LINE WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THIS FORECAST AND INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DEROCHE
The Omaha radar (KOAX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:59 UTC.
8 flood, 6 thunderstorm wind, 5 hail, 2 flash flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
The Nodaway River near Burlington Junction crested at 23.30 feet, or 0.30 feet above flood stage.
The Missouri River at Napolean crested at 17.74 feet, or 0.74 feet above flood stage.
The Missouri River at Waverly crested at 20.24 feet, or 0.24 feet above flood stage.
The Missouri River at Miami crested at 18.55 feet, or 0.55 feet above flood stage.
Brief tornado touchdown at 1515 CST with no damage.
The roof of a loafing shed was ripped from a barn. Also a 2x4 board pierced the wall of the garage.
Trailer damaged and power poles are down on northwest side of Kirksville.
Many streets and Highway 40 are experiencing flooding.
Hen house blown over.
Flooding on 13 Highway just south of the Johnson county line. Road covered by mud and flood debris. Standing water on 18 Highway.
Electric lines down in the city of Boonville.
Window blown out of a downtown Boonville building.
The Missouri River at Napolean crested at 17.23 feet, or 0.23 feet above flood stage.
The Blackwater River near Blue Lick crested at 24.57 feet, or 0.57 feet above flood stage.
The Missouri River at Miami crested at 18.40 feet, or 0.40 feet above flood stage.
The Missouri River at Waverly crested at 20.02 feet, or 0.02 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2007Warnings in Missouri, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 68197, 68204, 68207, 68198, 61542, 61537, 61538, 61532, 61539, 61527, 61533, 61540, 61528, 61543, 61541, 68206, 68193, 68200, 68210, 61534, 61535, 61536.