Low pressure moved out of the southern Plains on the 12th, then rapidly moved off the mid-Atlantic coast over the next 48 hours. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches caused some local runoff problems.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Low pressure moved out of the southern Plains on the 12th, then rapidly moved off the mid-Atlantic coast over the next 48 hours. Rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches caused some local runoff problems.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 12, 3:04 PM CST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 304 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO STORM SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS... ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...INCREASING LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED RAIN TONIGHT. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A PROFILE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 30 EVEN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTH AS SHOWALTER AND K INDICIES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. ON TUESDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE COOLER THAN THE NAM AS ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTHEAST. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...WHICH KEEPS MAINLY RAIN ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO MARION ILLINOIS TO PETERSBURG INDIANA THROUGH 18Z. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...A SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX. EXACTLY WHAT FORM THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR. CURRENTLY...WE PLAN TO STICK WITH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A BRIEF MIX WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WITH DWINDLING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE INFILTRATION OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MAINTAINED THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WRAP-AROUND CLOUDINESS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT. IT WILL BE BACK TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY TOWARDS THE COLDER GFS...AND THIS BLENDS WELL IN A COLLABORATIVE SENSE AS WELL. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WORK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER AND HAVE SHIFTED THE ENTIRE POP/WX GRIDS 6 HOURS. THEREFORE WE NOW HAVE AN AFTER-MIDNIGHT CHANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING WARMER AND HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE THIS SHIFT. WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FROZEN...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING...TAKE THIS MIX TO THE NORTHERN THIRD WITH LIQUID PRECIP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAST ENOUGH THAT THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS THE LIQUID ONLY DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. COLD AND DRY AIR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS BEGINS TO BRING IN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT BUT GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE DAY 7 AND 7+ DRY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && RP/ML
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 502 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-131115- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 502 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA. THOUGH THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS...LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE QUAD STATE. AT THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH THE REST OF THE REGION RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND ANY SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS. RST
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was coming up over Highway 142. The road was still passable, but water was over the curb and across the road.
Localized flooding of some secondary roads was reported. Water was over several intersections. Highway 142 was closed seven miles south of Poplar Bluff. An intersection along Highway 53 was closed. Water was over Highway 158, but the road was not closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 14582, 14531.