Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, April 3 to 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...WILL BE SENDING OUT AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE MOST
OF THE SHRA FROM THE ZONES. I WILL KEEP LIGHT SHRA IN FOR THE SOUTH
AS THE LL JET BEGINS TO PICK UP AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
GET SHRA TO DEVELOP. ALSO NEED TO UP THE LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD AS
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOWS TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS FOG. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE DENSE FOG SINCE WE WILL BE SO WARM...WE WERE
ABLE TO DRY OUT TODAY AND THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH CLOUDS TO DEAL
WITH. ALSO THE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER SO LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
THE BIGGER ISSUE BUT PATCHY FOG SHOULD STILL BE SEEN OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA.

TOMORROW STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT INTERESTING ESPECIALLY IN THE
DELTA. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...RATHER GOOD INSTABILITY AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD GET SOME DECENT CONVECTION IN THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THROUGH 05Z
WHICH THEN MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AREAWIDE.
EXPECT IFR STRATUS 09-14Z AND PATCHY DENSE FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN SRN MS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR AROUND 15-16Z TUESDAY WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS.
SHRA AND TSRA LOOK TO RETURN ACROSS THE NW BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN
TOMORROW.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
307 PM CDT MON APR 02 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
032007-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
307 PM CDT MON APR 02 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DELTA REGION
STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
DURING THE MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE 1 INCH DIAMETER
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...MAINLY NORTH OF A GRENADA TO
HOLLANDALE MISSISSIPPI TO CROSSETT ARKANSAS LINE.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA WAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

A STRONG UPPER JET AND WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS EVENING. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG COULD REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAINLY AT LOCATIONS
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND SHEAR TO CREATE THE PROPER CONDITIONS FOR
THESE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD BE ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO
CANTON TO PHILADELPHIA MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BUT EVEN SO...STRONG STORMS COULD
AFFECT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS SPRING
SEASON COLD FRONT AS IT BRINGS A COOL DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND THE EASTER WEEKEND.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE...IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
MORNING...APRIL 9TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.