Flash Flooding and Hail in Arkansas, April 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
205 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ON-GOING CONVECTION OVER MO FIRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...& AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST. SOUTHWEST END HAS BEEN SLOW TO
FIRE...BUT WITH LAPS DATA SHOWING LI OF -8 TO -10...WHILE THETA-E
SURGE HAS NOW SHIFTED TO FAR SE OK TO CENTRAL MO. 18Z SOUNDING
FROM KLZK HAD A PRECIP WATER 0.99 INCHES...LI OF -7.2...CAPE OF
2355 J/KG...& A WIND FIELD OF SW 10-40 SURFACE TO 6K FT. THIS
SOUNDING IS SLIGHTLY LESS UNSTABLE THAN 12Z SOUNDING...INVERSION
STILL PRESENT AT 4K-8K FT. EXPECTING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE SQUALL- LINE AS IT MOVES E-SE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UP POPS
TO 50% CHANCE OVER MOST AR EARLIER...& MAY HAVE TO GO LIKELY IN
SOME NE SPOTS LATER. SPC CONTINUES A MODERATE RISK...OVER CENTRAL
AR FOR DAY ONE. PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
INCREASED TO PROMPT LAKE WIND ADV THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER ALL OF AR.
AS STATED EARLIER... OVERALL JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY & LIFT WILL OVERCOME. WITHOUT GREAT
JET DYNAMICS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. COLD FRONT HAS
MADE SOME PROGRESS E-SE...& LOCATED OVER FAR SE KS...NORTH TO NEAR
KUIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MODELS HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AR FROM 18Z-
00Z THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...WITH MAIN LIFT OVER FAR SE AR AT 00Z.
HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FORECAST WITH MENTION OF SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. ALSO EXPECTED SPEED OF SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT SHOULD
LIMIT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL & COVERAGE...BUT WILL SEE SQUALL-LINE
FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...& SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE. OVERALL
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES. 00Z- 06Z...ENERGY IS PUSHING SOUTH OF AR...& STORMS
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE STATE BY 06Z. MUCH COOLER & DRIER AIR THEN
FILTERS IN OVER AR FOR WEDNESDAY & THE REST OF THE WEEK...TAKING TEMPS
BACK TO BELOW NORMALS...FROM NORMAL LOWS IN THE MID 40S WHILE HIGHS
IN THE MID & UPPER 60S. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF FROST LATE
IN THE WEEK...TO POSSIBLE FREEZE WATCH OR WARNING OVER THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FCST TO PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
DURG THE PD. SEVERAL UPPER LVL SYSTEMS WL DROP SEWD AND BRING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR TO THE FA. FIRST SYS WL AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...WITH SMALL CHCS OF LGT RAIN POSSIBLE
OVR MAINLY WRN AR SAT AFTN AND EVENING. RATHER CHILLY AIR WL
FOLLOW... WITH LOWS BY SUN MRNG IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S...THREATENING TENDER VEGETATION OVR MUCH OF THE FA. SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPS EXPECTED BY MON AND ANOTHER UPPER SYS PASSES
NE OF THE STATE MON NGT AND TUE. RAIN CHCS WL BE LIMITED AS BULK
OF LIFT RMNS N OF THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     47  61  35  57 /  50  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         50  64  41  61 /  50  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       40  58  34  56 /  50  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    49  64  40  60 /  50  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  49  63  39  60 /  50  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     53  65  41  62 /  50  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      47  63  40  60 /  50  10   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  42  58  33  56 /  50  10   0  10
NEWPORT AR        49  61  35  56 /  50  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     51  65  40  61 /  50  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   45  61  37  58 /  50  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         49  62  38  58 /  50  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      51  64  39  60 /  50  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
340 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-041000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
340 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN
AREAS NORTH OF ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WERE
POPPING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MISSOURI. IN ARKANSAS...WARM AIR
ALOFT WAS CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH NO STORMS AS OF 3 PM CDT.
THAT WILL CHANGE THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE...WITH THE CAP WEAKENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...WITH THE STORMS
AFFECTING ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. STORMS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MUCH COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
COOL AIR IN THE COMING DAYS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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