Excessive Heat in Kentucky, August 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
952 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A COMBINATION OF
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEATHER BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCS JUST EXITING THE NORTHEAST CWA AS OF 1330Z...BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SET UP ACROSS THE COAL FIELDS AND BACK TO
CENTRAL KY. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THIS
MORNING...BUT REINTRODUCE CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY. GENERALLY...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KEKN TO KCRW LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
DIFFERING FROM EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN-TO-RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW. GFS DEW POINTS APPEAR TO BE INITIALIZED
5-10F DEGREES TOO LOW...WHILE NAM IS QUITE CLOSE. THUS...I FEEL
THE FIRING OF CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN CENTRAL CWA
SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...CAP WILL STILL BE PRETTY STOUT AND SO
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD. OPTED TO HOLD POPS IN
CHANCE RANGE WITH SCATTERED WORDING TO THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT SUGGESTS HAIL
WILL NOT BE AS MUCH A THREAT...AS GUSTY WINDS GIVEN NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SPC KEEPS MOST OF CWA IN SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE AS OF 13Z...THOUGH AXIS OF THE RISK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH
TOWARDS SOUTHERN WV/EASTERN KY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP THERE FROM EARLIER MCS...AND WITH
A COUPLE CELLS ALREADY FIRING UPSTREAM IN WESTERN KY.

SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR MCS CLOUDS ALREADY
LEAVING THE CWA. MAX TEMPS ADJUSTED UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN
THE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE...HOWEVER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
SUGGESTED BY MAV GUIDANCE /DEW POINTS TOO LOW...THUS MAX TEMPS TOO
HIGH/. STILL PLENTY HOT...NEAR RECORDS...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO THE SOUTH...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
WILL BE DRYING CONSIDERABLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
DIMINISH OUR POP CHANCES TO START THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TEMPS
WILL SEE ABOUT A 5 DEGREE DROP FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREE DROP
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY...AS 850H TEMPS COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSELY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING
ITSELF OUT AS IT MEANDERS BACK NORTHWARD. AS FAR AS ATMOSPHERE
TRIGGERS GO..THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO PIN THE FORECAST ON
THUS...CARRIED A GENERAL BLEND OF CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SUNDAY...AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS NORTHWARD. AS BAROCLINIC ZONE WEAKENS...IT WILL
HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS...THUS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING POPS WILL BE THE RULE. HPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD FOR THE
SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
LAST OF THE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS IS PASSING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND SHOULD BE CLEAR BY 14Z. CB EXPECTED
TODAY IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND VARIOUS TRIGGERS MOVING
THROUGH...BUT TSRA SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND A FEW
MAY BE SEVERE. AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY DROP TO
IFR TONIGHT...MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HZ IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTENOON AT CRW AND BKW IN THE HEAT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...12Z FRI - MON...TSRA POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. IFR FG POSSIBLE AT EKN OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
436 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-170845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
436 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

OHZ066-161045-
PERRY OH-
555 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 555 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SOMERSET...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF HEATH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  THORNVILLE...RENDVILLE...PERRY STATE FOREST...NEW LEXINGTON...
  JUNCTION CITY AND GLENFORD.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

26