Damaging Wind in Ohio, August 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
909 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS OHIO WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WILL MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT.

CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHES ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER AND IS
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST-SOUTHEAST. DESPITE INSTABILITY PRESENT
WEAKER FORCING NOT RESULTING IN MUCH MORE THAN SHOWERS FOR NOW.
EXPECT THAT WITH TIME OVERNIGHT THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND
DECIDED NOT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN CHC THUNDER AND LIKELY
THUNDER TO GO ALONG WITH THE LIKELY POPS. ANY SEVERE CHANCE LOOKS
MINIMAL. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS AND SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IS POSSIBLE...AS SEEN ACROSS THE
CHICAGO AREA NOW. RUC/GFS/NAM ALL TAKE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CWA OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED THE
POPS...TIMING RAIN INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH LIKELY
POPS STILL WORK FOR THE CWA...WITH IT RAINING NOW IN THE TOL AREA
AND THE MEASURABLE RAIN NOT MAKING IT TO SAY MAHONING CO UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL LOOKED GOOD IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS AS RIGHT NOW 70 DEW POINTS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS.

THURSDAY A TROF WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TOWARD EVENING. NAM CAPES REACH BETWEEN
2 AND 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHT CHC OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE. NAM HOWEVER DOES SHOW DRYG MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS W DUE
TO THE DRYING...AND LIKELY EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM CONTINUES TO BRING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
SECOND BOUNDRY APPROACHES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NWRN PA WHERE LEFTOVER DEEP MOISTURE AND CAPE COULD HELP TO
SUSTAIN/DEVELOP CONVECTION THERE INTO THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHC POPS THERE TO COVER...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYG AND CLEARING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE THE HEAT BUILDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY THE SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
RETURN FLOW OVERRUNS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE CENTRAL STATES.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND
STALLS. WOULD EXPECT A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. ANOTHER INCREASED
THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON TIMING
WITH MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING THE NW PA. WATCHING THE
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEY SEEM TO BE WEAKENING. SOME OF THE MODELS TRYING TO
HINT AS DEVELOPMENT AROUND 03Z WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR. ON THE EDGE
ABOUT THAT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE SLIDING MORE
SOUTHEAST...SO WILL HIT THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FORECAST AREA HARDER. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE PRECIPITATION. WITH
THE AIRMASS MOIST AND WARM FRONT IN THE AREA SOME MVFR BR ALSO
DEVELOPING.

AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AM
ON THE EDGE ABOUT HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP. BOTH GFS AND NAM
TRY TO DECREASE THE THE MOISTURE QUICKLY WITH SEVERAL TROFS MOVING
THROUGH. AT THIS TIME ANY ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON A
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND LAST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE LAKE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WHETHER A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FAIRLY BRISK NW
TO N FLOW EXPECTED MUCH OF FRI INTO SAT WITH SCA CRITERIA AGAIN
MET. THINGS WILL DIE DOWN LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
913 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-161100-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-
SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
913 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE THAT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SEVERE IS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY.

OUDEMAN