Heat in Nevada, August 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA. AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL TURN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...PREC WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
12Z KDRA SOUNDING INCREASING TO OVER 1 INCH. LIMITED FOCUSING FOR
THIS AFTERNOON SEEN. EXPECT MAIN ACTIVITY TO BE OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM PDT SHORT TERM...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
FROM BOTH STEERING AND OUTFLOW LAST EVENING PROVIDED A MARGINAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA. THE FLOW IS BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO A DRIER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. MOST RECENT NAM12 RUN IS INDICATING
A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES AT 500 MB WHICH MAY ACT TO SLIGHTLY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF CLARK AND LINCOLN
COUNTY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FIRST WEAK IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY AND INTO
LINCOLN COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD UP TO COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO
SOUTHWEST UTAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND REDUCE
COVERAGE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.LONG TERM...00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...DEPICTING A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA PUSHING EASTWARD AND HELPING TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE
CHANGED NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DRY WESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN... THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF SEEING A
TSTM POP UP AT KLAS...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING IN
THIS MORNINGS TAF. OUTSIDE OF TSTMS...WEATHER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
BENIGN...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FEW TO SCT CLOUD COVERAGE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KTS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...NONE.
.AZ...NONE.
.CA...NONE.
&&

JENSEN/CZYZYK/KENNEDY

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
526 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

AZZ001>003-036-CAZ524>527-NVZ015-016-018>022-170330-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
MORONGO BASIN-CADIZ BASIN-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-
UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-LINCOLN COUNTY-NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-LAS VEGAS VALLEY-
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
526 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007 /526 AM MST THU AUG 16 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ARIZONA...CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEVADA. SOME GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEVADA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEVADA ON FRIDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DRIER WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
PER STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE

CAZ519>523-NVZ014-017-170330-
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-OWENS VALLEY-WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-
WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
526 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.