A surface warm front lifted across the eastern half of Kansas overnight, as a strong low level jet drove moisture northward and over the front, which fed into elevated thunderstorms that had congealed into an MCS early in the morning of the 17th. Small hail was reported with several of the storms, but only 1 report of nickel sized hail was received.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A surface warm front lifted across the eastern half of Kansas overnight, as a strong low level jet drove moisture northward and over the front, which fed into elevated thunderstorms that had congealed into an MCS early in the morning of the 17th. Small hail was reported with several of the storms, but only 1 report of nickel sized hail was received. This convective system drenched the area with rainfall as well. The attendant dryline and cold front associated with the low traversed northeast Kansas later in the afternoon. Already saturated ground across the area received another round of precipitation, which provoked flash flooding in portions of Lyon, Douglas, and Osage Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 2:27 AM CST, 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE/TIME AND WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 327 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007 .DISCUSSION... WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. 08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. AT THE SFC...MOISTURE RETURN IS IN FULL SWING WITH 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN SOUTHERN KS. AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE. ALREADY GETTING SOME REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL WITH THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. 00Z MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IDEAS AND HAVE NOT MADE A LOT OF CHANGES. MAIN CONCERN WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IF THE SUN IS ABLE TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...SHEER AND INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE JUST AS THE NEGATIVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH PROVIDING THE BEST FORCING. STORMS ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLULAR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEER AND LOW LCL AND LFC HEIGHTS...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS LIMITING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH STORM INITIATION AS STORMS THAT FORM IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS COULD MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL KS. FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW PWS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP /ELEVATED TS THIS MORNING THEN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/ AND ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS WEST OF MHK AND NORTH OF OTTAWA. LEFT NORTH CENTRAL KS OUT OF THE WATCH FOR NOW WITH LARGER STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. ALSO LEFT LYON...COFFEE AND ANDERSON COUNTIES OUT SINCE THEY DOD NOT RECEIVE NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN IN RECENT DAYS AND FFG VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. CONTINUED WITH POPS FOR THURSDAY AS MODELS SHOW WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME STEP LAPSE RATES EARLY IN THE DAY MOVING EAST INTO MO BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THINK THERE WILL BE MORE SHOWERS THAN ANYTHING...INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO THESE LAPSE RATES. WINDY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK PLAUSIBLE AS THE SFC LOW OVER IA. CLOUD COVER AND CAA SHOULD LIMIT MUCH OF A WARM UP ON THURSDAY AND PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY. && WOLTERS .AVIATION... AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE TRENDS COULD BE IFR FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AND WILL INCLUDE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR CONVECTION. CLOSER TO 12Z TAF ISSUANCE MAY GO WITH PREVAILING IFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE SOME GUSTINESS AT THE SURFACE BUT GIVEN PROFILERS SHOWING 50KTS AT LOWER GATES...WILL STILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. WILL HAVE PREVAILING TS WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY INCLUDING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTER 06Z SURFACE WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EXPECT A DECREASE IN TS COVERAGE WITH PREVAILING CEILINGS BECOMING VFR OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. && FRANTZ .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH AND WEST OF A MELVERN TO JUNCTION CITY TO MARYSVILLE LINE FROM 10 AM TODAY UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY. &&
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</html>The Topeka radar (KTWX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:15 UTC.
3 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Nickel sized hail was reported on HWY 77 near the Geary/Morris county line.
Water was reported to be flowing over Berryton Rd. east of Lyndon. Water was also reported to be flowing over Shawnee Heights Rd. south of Overbrook at 165th and 173rd. A storm spotter in Quenemo reported 1.75 of rain, while another reported 3.5 in Scranton.
Law enforcement relayed a report that water was flowing over N. 1500 Road near E. 2000 Rd. A spotter in the town of Eudora reported 4.00 of rain so far on the 17th.
There were several reports of water over roadways, including Road P at 150th Rd, and the intersection of Rd. N and 160th. Water filled ditches were also also spilling onto roadways. Spotters reported 2.4 of rain northwest of Olpe, and 2.00 just west of Olpe.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 63895, 63896, 63899, 63897.