The first of two rounds of severe weather occurred during the early morning hours. This first round was associated with strong low level southwest winds ahead of a deep low pressure center along the Missouri/Nebraska border.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The first of two rounds of severe weather occurred during the early morning hours. This first round was associated with strong low level southwest winds ahead of a deep low pressure center along the Missouri/Nebraska border. Most of the severe weather during the early morning hours was damaging wind associated with short lines of storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 17, 3:15 PM CST, 6 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 315 PM CST WED OCT 17 2007 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN EMPHASIZING THE 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PUSHING OUT OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 09Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE A LLJ OF 75KTS AT 850MB IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...WITH THE LIFT EXPECTED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LINE SEGMENTS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES OUT OF ANY CONVECTIVE MODE. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY OUTRUN THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT IF THEY ARE SLOWER TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY CATCH UP TO THEM AND THERE MAY BE SOME BETTER THREAT OF MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE WORST SEVERE WEATHER WOULD ACCOMPANY THESE ISOLATED STORMS...BUT AGAIN THAT IS UNLIKELY. FOR THURSDAY...THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY AT SUNRISE...AND SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 15Z. THE WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SO SEVERE THREAT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GOOD THERE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR THE DRYLINE/TROUGH IN EASTERN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BRING A MAJOR DRY SLOT WITH MID-LEVEL WARMING INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...WHICH EFFECTIVELY PUTS A LID ON ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE MODELS DO GENERATE SOME SHALLOW SHOWERY CONVECTION THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH SEEMS BELIEVABLE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE POP IN THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z NAM EVOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH SEVERE MENTION THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND KEEP GOOD CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE EAST WITH SLIGHTS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. WILL GO DRY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND RAMP UP TO JUST 30S IN THE EAST. AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THINK THAT HPC QPF WAS OVERDONE FOR TONIGHT...SO KNOCKED IT DOWN ABOUT 30 PERCENT. 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BETWEEN THE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THE OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY AM CONVECTION. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY FAVORED THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN STAYED NEAR CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY AND PLEASANT SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND INCONSISTENT WITH AN EARLY WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS BRINGS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THE ECMWF IS VERY SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE SURFACE LOW FINALLY MOVING OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS US DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF LINGERS PRECIP OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW NEVER MOVING. DGEX IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BUT SLOWLY MOVING IT NORTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...BASED ON LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GUIDANCE...WENT COOLER THAN THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL MOVE NE...AFFECTING KCGI BY 20Z...KPAH BY 21Z...AND KEVV AROUND 23Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR TSTMS. TSTMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z. CIGS RANGING FROM BKN015 TO BKN030 WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH BKN010-015 POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. S TO SE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE ON THURSDAY FROM THE S TO SW WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && DRS
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</html>The Paducah radar (KPAH), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:19 UTC.
10 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two trees were blown down associated with a band of thunderstorms and heavy rain.
In Doniphan, numerous trees and power lines were blown down. One of the trees partially landed on a home, causing moderate damage. A mobile home was damaged. A vacant building sustained roof damage and a broken window. A wind gust to 56 MPH was measured in Doniphan. Near Flatwoods, a barn was blown away on BB Highway. On Highway 21 North, a tree fell on some cars and a house. On County Road 142 east of Doniphan, siding was blown off a trailer, and numerous trees and power lines were down. Near Naylor, numerous treetops were blown onto Route W.
The state highway patrol headquarters on U.S. Highway 67 just northwest of Poplar Bluff estimated winds gusted to 65 mph. Power lines were blown down. The flag pole was bent. Six trees were blown down on PP Highway.
In Dexter, a grocery store was partially unroofed. Numerous tree limbs and power lines were down. One large limb landed on a vehicle. Numerous trees were blown down in Bernie.
A wind gust to 70 mph was measured 4 miles south of Marble Hill, where trees were blown down. Five downed trees and some power lines blocked streets in the city of Marble Hill. Business signs were overturned. Power lines were down in the Leopold area. Numerous power outages were reported.
A tree fell on a Jeep, causing minor damage. County roads were blocked by fallen trees and power lines.
Numerous trees were reported down throughout the county. The damage was reported mainly in northern, central, and western sections of the county. Some of the worst damage occurred in Kelso, where shingles were blown off roofs.
Numerous trees were blown down from just south of Delta to the Cape Girardeau city limits. At least one tree fell against a house, and a tree limb fell on a roof. A trained spotter estimated a 60 mph wind gust 1 mile northeast of Cape Girardeau. In the city of Cape Girardeau, numerous trees and power lines were down in the northwest section of the city. Trees landed on sheds, garages, and a vehicle. Cleanup was expected to take several days. About 6,400 customers in Cape Girardeau were without power at the peak of the outage.
Two telephone poles and three trees were down.
There were two separate instances of power lines blown down. A few large trees were down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 58805, 59518, 58807, 58806, 58808, 58811, 58812, 58810, 58814, 58813.