Tornado and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, October 17 to 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
STRONG NEGATIVE TILT TROF IN THE PLAINS WILL SWING BY THE AREA
TONIGHT AND BRING A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME. APPEARS THE DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE THE MAIN SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BUT
SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE
WEATHER. GFS INDICATES THE MAIN IMPETUS OF THIS WILL BE PAST THE
AREA BY 06Z BUT THIS LOOKS A LITTLE FAST. BASICALLY WENT WITH POPS
RANGING FROM 60 IN THE SOUTH TO 80 IN THE NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT WITH SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE ZONES. LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY SHOULD AT LEAST
DECREASE IF NOT END COMPLETELY. SOME DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS BY MORNING BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT HOW MUCH OF A THRUST OF DRY
AIR WILL MOVE IN. GENERALLY WENT WITH GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND DEW
POINTS BY 12Z THURSDAY. UPPER TROF WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
DURING THE DAY BUT IT APPEARS ALL THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA. DROPPED ALL MENTION OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL LIKELY REQUIRE LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY
DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND WENT THAT WAY FOR MAXES BUT WENT A
LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTH. ON THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE ROTATES
AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A LITTLE
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. FOR NOW KEPT POPS JUST BELOW THESHOLD FOR
MENTION IN THE NORTH IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.
RIDGING MOVES IN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH MINS NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND MAXES NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NEXT TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...GIVEN HIGH
VARIABILITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. APPEARS AS THOUGH A FRONT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA SOME TIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SLOW UP THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES AROUND INTO THE
WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES IN THE GOING FORECAST UNTIL
MODELS REACH MORE OF AN AGREEMENT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  83  53  77 /  80  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         68  87  58  82 /  60  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       61  80  50  74 /  80  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  86  55  80 /  70  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  86  56  80 /  70  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     68  89  58  82 /  60  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  85  55  80 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  80  50  74 /  80  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  85  53  77 /  80  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     67  87  57  80 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  84  53  78 /  70  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         66  85  54  79 /  70  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  87  56  80 /  70  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
325 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE CHANGING IN DIRECTION AND
INCREASING IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT...WHICH INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES AS WELL. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS
FORM AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ON THURSDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ARKANSAS UNTIL THE FRONT
PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME BREEZY. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY ON THURSDAY...AS WINDS COULD APPROACH 15
TO 25 MPH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THURSDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. KEEP
INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH
OR WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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