The heavy rainfall that occurred during the evening of the 14th into the early morning of the 15th produced flash flooding in several counties. The flash flooding transitioned into general flooding in some of the same counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
The heavy rainfall that occurred during the evening of the 14th into the early morning of the 15th produced flash flooding in several counties. The flash flooding transitioned into general flooding in some of the same counties. Total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range across much of the area. Significant flooding of roads and small streams was reported in Cass, Adams, and Adair Counties. The rain tapered off over night, allowing water to drain off. Much of the flooding had subsided by early afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 15, 3:09 AM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 409 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007 .SYNOPSIS... LG WV THROUGH MOVING INTO NE/KS THIS MORNING. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF KS/OK SPEED MAX AIDING SRN PLAINS MCS WHILE THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN HERE. SHRT WV EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER SRN NE WITH OTHER WVS STILL YET TO ROUND BOTTOM OF TROUGH. LOBE OF QG FORCING WRAPPED AHEAD OF H5/H7 CIRCULATION INTO IA AND NE...BUT BEST THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING MORE E ACROSS MO THAN N. 08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES LOW NEAR KCNK WITH INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH MO RIVER VALLEY AND WEAK WRMFNT ACROSS MO. && .DISCUSSION... IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE FATE OF CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. APPEARS BEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN W AND S OF AREA THIS MORNING IN CORE OF NE SHRT WV AND S ASSOCIATED WITH JET FORCING. RADAR TRENDS WEAKENING SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WORST HIT AREAS ALREADY HAVE WARNINGS IN PLACE AND THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING SEEMS MINIMAL. FORCING SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME PCPN GOING TODAY SO HAVE CARRIED BAND OF CAT POPS ROTATING NWD BY AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO IA TONIGHT SO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE/LIKELY POPS WITH HIGH END NERN PORTIONS IN AREA OF DEEPER FORCING. CHANCES LINGER FROM SW-NE TUE BUT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS AS BEST UVM AND MOISTURE NOW WELL TO THE N AND E. SHOULD DRY OUT TUE NIGHT AS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS IA BUT BREAK WILL BE BRIEF. ALL MODELS BRING SYS JUST OFF CA COAST INTO MIDWEST WED. 00Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED FOR DETAILS. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING BOTH INCREASE WED BUT SEEM TO PEAK WED NIGHT. MOISTURE TRANSPORT REALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW AND SHOULD BRING YET ANOTHER MCS TO IA WED NIGHT. SYS WILL BE MORE TRANSIENT THAN PRESENT ONE...BUT SEASONALLY HIGH PWS REMAIN AND COULD EXASPERATE FLOODING CONCERN WITH ONE-TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FURTHER THROUGH LIKELY TO BRINK OF CATEGORICAL AND WILL ISSUE ESF FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WITH SFC LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO IA TODAY TEMPS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARD COOLER END OF GUIDANCE NORTH AND WARMER END SOUTH. WITH SFC LOW LINGERING OVER IA TUE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH WARMING OR MIXING AS SUGGESTED BY SOUNDINGS SO HAVE GONE AROUND OR BELOW COOLEST GUIDANCE IN MOST SPOTS. RAW MODEL TEMPS SUGGEST COOL END OF THINGS WED AS WELL. && .AVIATION...15/06Z NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARY CONCERNS REMAIN APPROACHING SYSTEM...THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 18Z MONDAY WILL BE OVER FOD AND MCW AS A DRY SLOT WORKS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING DSM/OTM UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF TNT AND MONDAY. IN ADDITION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WORSEN TOWARD MORNING SOUTH AND EAST TAF SITES/RTES AS LOW APPROACHES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION INCREASES. DRY PUNCH SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AFT 18Z ALLOWING WITH INCREASING CIGS/VSBYS WITH TIME. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && BSS/MJA/REV
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>026-033>037-044>048-057>060-070>073- 081>083-092>094-152100- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON- HARDIN-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS- POLK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD- DECATUR- 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MAY PUSH LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE STORM WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED. IAZ027-028-038-039-049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097-152100- BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK- MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS- 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DONAVON/REV
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1131 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM HEAVY RAIN ADAIR 41.50N 94.64W
10/14/2007 M4.75 INCH ADAIR IA TRAINED SPOTTER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNT SINCE LAST NIGHT
&&
SMALLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 WSW ADAIR 41.48N 94.69W
10/15/2007 ADAIR IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROAD CLOSED DUE TO WATER RUNNING OVER ROAD.
&&
MRUSSELLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
238 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM FLASH FLOOD CASEY 41.51N 94.52W
10/15/2007 GUTHRIE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER WHITE POLE ROAD 1 MILE WEST OF CASEY.
&&
MRUSSELLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
240 AM CDT MON OCT 15 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 SW GUTHRIE CENTER 41.61N 94.59W
10/15/2007 GUTHRIE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT
NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS UNDER WATER.
&&
MRUSSELLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was reported over Highway 25 just south of Interstate 80, possibly from the Middle river. The report was received from the Adair County Sheriff.
Jackson Road at 650th was closed due to flooding.
Barricades were placed at 110th and Birch with water flowing over the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 54570, 54574, 54576.