Drought in Hawaii, June 12 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JUN 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS
BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N
160W...OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF LIHUE. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO
HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THIS FEATURE...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. BANDS
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO BE
CARRIED TOWARD THE STATE. ONE SUCH BAND IS CURRENTLY NEAR MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND. THE POORLY DEFINED LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER OF THESE
CLOUD AND SHOWERS BANDS IS LOCATED 300 MILES EAST OF HILO. THIS
LEADING EDGE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS.

THE CURRENT GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY
ON TRACK. EXPECT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST
FIELDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 350 PM HST...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABSENT
EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OF COURSE MT
WAIALEALE ON KAUAI WHERE 1.64 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE
HILO SIDE GOT UP TO .55 OF AN INCH OVER THE SAME TIME. MORE UPSTREAM
CLOUDS ARE HEADED THEIR WAY AND WILL BRING IN SOME SHOWERS TO THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF OTHER ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BE WEAK UNABLE TO WIPE OUT THE CLOUD
CAPPING TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS BUT STILL LIFTING THEM UP TO AS HIGH
AS 9500 FEET. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SLIGHT ENHANCING
INFLUENCE ON SHOWERS AGAIN TOMORROW BEFORE DEPARTING WEDNESDAY.
OTHER TRADE WIND CLOUD BANDS FARTHER UPSTREAM MAY ARRIVE TOMORROW
NIGHT.

MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH OF OUR FAMILIAR RIDGE TO THE
NORTH SHOULD EASE AND ALLOW A FULLER DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE AND
ITS TRADE WINDS THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
TYPICAL BREEZY MARINE ZONES...SUCH AS MAALAEA BAY...WATERS ADJACENT
TO THE SOUTHERN BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA
CHANNELS.

THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY LARGER LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE SURF PRODUCED BY THESE SWELLS IS EXPECTED
TO REACH MODERATE LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURF REPORTS FROM THE BUOYS...
INCLUDING THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL LANAI BUOY...AND FROM OBSERVERS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF THE SURF IS CLOSE TO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 8 FEET ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION...HOUSTON
PREV DISCUSSION...MATSUDA
MARINE...HOUSTON