Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, June 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...MONDAY WAS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF HOT AND DRY DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALTHOUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS HAVE GONE
QUIETLY...SOME STRONG STORMS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED JUST TO THE N OF OUR
CWA ACROSS CENTRAL GA. SOME OF THESE APPEAR TO BE PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL WITH 70+ DBZ CORES ABOVE 25K FT. HOWEVER...AS THESE
STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE S-SE INTO THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR
CWA...THEY ARE STRUGGLING TO RE-DEVELOP AND INSTEAD APPEAR TO BE
ALIGNING MORE ON THE E-W MOISTURE AXIS JUST TO OUR N. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE WX THREAT GENERALLY TO OUR N OVERNIGHT...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OUR NE GA COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT
FEW HRS...ESPECIALLY IN THE TURNER...BEN HILL...AND IRWIN
VICINITIES. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS CONTINUE LIGHT OUT OF
THE SW...AND THERE ARE SOME VERY HIGH TDS (78-82) POOLING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WHICH MAY HELP FUEL THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THIS 1ST BATCH OF
STRONG CONVECTION WILL MISS THE CWA OVERNIGHT....CONDITIONS DO
APPEAR RIPE FOR A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER WHERE THE DYNAMICS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. THAT LARGE AREA OF
MOISTURE POOLING WHICH BEGAN ON SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SC AND GA WILL
PARTIALLY WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED OFF THIS MOISTURE
AND PRODUCE SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST THREATS TO OUR AREA FOR THIS
EVENT. FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION MAY PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE AS WELL...AND SOME OF THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS POOLING
OVER THE N GULF COULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
AND SE AL BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STRONG STORMS TODAY MAY BE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY
BEGIN EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO PREVENT MAXIMUM HEATING AND
INSOLATION. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...HOPEFULLY MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
SOME MORE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. AFTER THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A BATCH OF DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE N FOR WED AND THU...AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
NUMBERS FOR POPS HAVE FALLEN QUITE A BIT...AM NOT YET CONVINCED THAT
WE WILL BE COMPLETELY FREE FROM CONVECTION THESE DAYS. THEREFORE...
WILL PLAN ON KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE TIME
BEING.

&&

.LONG TERM...THE GFS HAS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON ITS
PROJECTED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT ITS STILL DOES BRING IN SOME GULF MOISTURE FROM
THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD OF THIS...
WE MAY BRIEFLY RETURN TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPS...BUT NOTHING OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO THIS
LAST HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING...THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...BY DAYBREAK...COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG OVER
THE TERMINALS (MVFR). THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE NNW OVER THE KABY TERMINAL BEFORE
DAYBREAK. LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
KTLH...KVLD...AND KABY WILL BE AFFECTED THE MOST BY STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. WILL COVER THIS WITH
PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...NO CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  88  66  91  67  89 /  50  30  20  10  20
PANAMA CITY  88  73  90  71  88 /  40  30  20  10  20
DOTHAN       91  69  91  68  91 /  40  20  20  10  20
ALBANY       91  67  89  66  91 /  60  20  20  10  30
VALDOSTA     87  65  89  64  89 /  60  20  20  10  30
CROSS CITY   87  67  90  65  89 /  50  30  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GIBBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-
GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-131000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-COASTAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-BAY-CALHOUN-GULF-FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-
JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-WAKULLA-TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-DIXIE-QUITMAN-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-
IRWIN-EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
456 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007 /356 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...FLORIDA...SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GENERALLY ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

17-GOULD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

GAZ124-121015-
TERRELL-
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR TERRELL COUNTY...

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

AT 518 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF PLAINS...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
DAWSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS...AND IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

85-GIBBS