Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES CONTINUES
TO DIG SOUTH WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 CONTINUES TO BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SEND AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THE
LINE OF STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS
THE COLD POOL BEHIND THE COMPLEX DRIVES SOUTH AND THEREFORE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
INTO THE EVENING. AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT RUNS THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND CONTINUES SOUTH AND IF IT DOESNT DISSIPATE IT MAY MOVE
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING, BUT REGARDLESS IF
THE LINE OF STORMS PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED INTO LATE EVENING. EVEN WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES
THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND CAPE WILL BE
GREATEST. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ELEVATED ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND
OVER THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, BUT AFTER THAT
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SURGES NORTHWARD. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER
2 INCHES BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CREATE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
19Z TODAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MARCH SLOWLY INLAND
REACHING AFFECTING ALL EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ALONG WITH BREEZES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...SHOULD CONVERGE OVER INLAND AREAS AND THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE ANY STORM/SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS DRIFT
TOWARD EAST COAST POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL EASTERN TERMINAL TOWARD
LATE AFTERNOON  AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER ERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. KAPF WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FREE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH 12Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RELATIVELY CALM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AT 4 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  86  74  85 / 30 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  73  84 / 30 40 20 20
MIAMI            74  88  74  87 / 30 40 20 20
NAPLES           74  88  71  88 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
538 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-122130-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
538 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2007

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FREQUENT
TO CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR
AREA, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

WIND: ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 58 MPH. THESE WINDS
ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

HAIL: ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL OF AT
LEAST DIME SIZE TODAY, WITH SOME PENNY SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
DEVELOP WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM TODAY.

WATERSPOUTS: LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WATERSPOUT FORMATION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
BISCAYNE BAY TODAY. REMEMBER THAT WATERSPOUTS CAN FORM EVEN IN
WEAK SHOWERS, AND WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

FLOODING: SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO POSSIBLE ROADWAY
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, AND SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HAIL.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG OR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL TODAY, AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG