Flash Flooding in Arkansas, July 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
154 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BEFORE STALLING OUT...AND EVENTUALLY WASHING
OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL
MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD...CONTINUING THE CHANCE FOR MOSTLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GREATEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...THE UPPER
LOW OR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. THE
SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND PROGRESS SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT ITS PRESENCE WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME KIND OF WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS KEEP TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE NOT BEEN RIGHT ABOUT THIS FOR
SEVERAL WEEKS AND AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT IT THIS TIME. BASICALLY WENT
WITH MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOME MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID TEND TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER ON
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. DID NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE WITH MINS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S AND MAXES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DID HEDGE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT FROM INCREASED
CLOUDS AS MUCH AS FROM THE EFFECTS OF ANY FRONT THAT MAY MANAGE TO
REACH THE AREA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  89  68  90 /  40  30  20  20
CAMDEN AR         72  84  69  91 /  50  50  30  30
HARRISON AR       69  90  67  89 /  40  20  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  87  69  89 /  50  40  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  88  71  91 /  50  40  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     72  84  71  91 /  60  50  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      70  86  65  87 /  50  40  30  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  94  68  92 /  40  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        70  90  68  91 /  40  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     72  87  70  89 /  50  50  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  90  65  90 /  40  30  30  30
SEARCY AR         72  89  69  90 /  50  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      72  89  72  90 /  50  50  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
501 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST TEXAS WILL
SPREAD SOME ENERGY NORTH TOWARD SOUTH ARKANSAS...WHICH WILL HELP
DEVELOP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ARKANSAS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH...AND HELP
FORM ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. THE
THREAT OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WEAK FRONT OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM A LOW OVER EAST TEXAS...WILL HELP
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ON SUNDAY...
THE FRONT WASHES OUT...AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN LOWER. OTHERWISE...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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