Heavy thunderstorm rains produced flash flooding around Buena Vista in Chaffee County and west of Saguache in Saguache County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
Heavy thunderstorm rains produced flash flooding around Buena Vista in Chaffee County and west of Saguache in Saguache County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 2:00 PM MST, 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 300 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2007 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND FRIDAY) METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE POPS AND TEMPERATURES. REGION CURRENTLY BEING GRACED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EASTERN PORTIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS WESTERN SECTIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WESTERN SECTION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. CONVECTION PARAMETERS RATHER MEAGER TODAY AS COMPARED TO PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH EARLY AFTERNOON(19Z/5TH) CAPES/LIS IN THE (500 TO 1000J/KG)/(0C TO -2C) RANGES RESPECTIVELY...WHILE CURRENT AND PROJECTED 0-6KM SHEARS GENERALLY UNDER 20 KNOTS. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER UTAH FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE CWFAS AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS AND DRIES OUT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL PAINT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY WESTERN 1/2 OF CWFA. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE PULSE SEVERE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE NOTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL AROUND NOON FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB A CATEGORY OR SO EASTERN PORTIONS...WHILE WESTERN SECTIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOUR READINGS. GRADIENT WINDS PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED DURING THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM... (FRI NITE THROUGH THURSDAY) MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PD CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS FCST TO COME INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INCREASING THE LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. FOR FRI NITE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...I ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE DIGITAL FCST DATABASE DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING FLOW AT MID LVLS WILL BE A BIT MORE NNW AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME TSRA TO COME OUT A BIT FARTHER ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...I BROUGHT SOME POPS OUT ONTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDTION...WITH THE OVERALL WEAK FLOW ALOFT (UNDER THE RIDGE) GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVG ACROSS SAT...AND THIS MAY ALLOW PRECIP TO BEGIN A BIT EARLIER IN THE MTNS. LIKEWISE I INCLUDED SOME LATE MORNING TSRA OVER THE HIER TRRN. FOR SUNDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS A SHORT WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE REGION...AND THE MID LVL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO DECREASE...AND FLOW AT MDLVLS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NW COMPONENT. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW COOLER AIR TO COME INTO THE REGION AS A CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE HI PLAINS. MID LVL NW FLOW IS FCST TO BE RATHER WEAK INITIALLY...AND GRADUALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER MOISTER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION STARTING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING INTO MID WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S FRONT RANGE AND PLAINS AREAS. AS SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES...WE SHOULD SEE A BETTERN CHANCE OF FOR STRONGER STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING LATE ON WED AS MID LVL FLOW IS STRONGEST AND A SHORT WAVE COMES DOWN IN THE NW FLOW. AS ALWAYS THE CASE IN THESE SITUATIONS...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER (BL) IS TOO COOL...THEN THE THREAT OF THUNDER WILL BE DECREASED. IN ADDITION...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ON WED MAY ALSO PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION (ATTM...IT MAY AFFECT THE REGION TOO LATE IN THE DAY). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUNDAY COULD BE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARIES ARE WELL DEFINED OVER THE PLAINS AND ARE NOT THAT PROGRESSIVE. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY SIMULAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO WHEN WE HAD QUITE A FEW NON SUPERCELL TORNADOES DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. BY THU...THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INJECTING ANOTHER COOL AND STABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISOLATED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL PROJECTED FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ROAMS THESE AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY 06Z/6TH. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 77/34
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 622 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2007 COZ058>089-093>099-061300- WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT- LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT- EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT- WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT- CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT- WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT- SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT- SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT- LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT- EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT- ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT- SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT- NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT- WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT- WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET- WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT- WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT- TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT- CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY- NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7500 FT- COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT- WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT- TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT- CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY- EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY- EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY- LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY- 622 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...MOUNTAINS...AND HIGH VALLEYS BY MIDDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE EVENING IN SOME AREAS. THE COVERAGE WILL RANGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THE STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND MOST WILL BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...HAIL UNDER 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE...AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. OF COURSE...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A DANGER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...AND BRIEF RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.
The Denver radar (KFTG), 172 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:30 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred, which brought 2 to 3 feet of standing water and mud in low lying residental areas of Buena Vista.
Flash flooding occurred at Highway 114 and County Road 38EE.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 46389, 46390.