Flash Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, July 5, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IN OUR AREA WHICH MEANS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE
SOME STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A SMATTERING OF STORMS.  SOME ARE
LOCATED  ALONG A BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND OTHERS
ARE CLOSER TO A CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS.
THUS...HAVE SOME POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING AND MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WASH AWAY IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THE
UPPER CIRCULATION WILL BE A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WRF TRIES TO BRING A WAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT THE GFS DOES NOT.
RH AND QPF FROM THE WRF IS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
GIVEN TERRAIN COULD DO SOMETHING IN THE AREA EVEN WITHOUT
A WAVE SO HAVE LOW POPS FOR IT.

SMALL POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR POP CORN CONVECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  COULD SEE ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COOL FRONT INTO THE
AREA.  CHOSE NOT TO TOTALLY BITE ON IT YET AS THE 06Z RUN HAS
IT COMING WEDNESDAY AND THE 12Z THURSDAY.  THE ECMWF LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD STAY TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES TRENDS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN FOR THE
MOS BEING NEAR OR A COUPLE DEGREES TOO COOL.  HAVE TRENDED
MAX/MINS IN THIS WAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  91  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   71  88  71  92 /  40  30  10  20
MLC   68  87  67  90 /  50  30  20  20
BVO   65  92  66  94 /  20   0  10   0
FYV   65  85  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   67  86  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
MKO   70  89  70  90 /  30  10  10  10
MIO   68  93  68  92 /  20   0  10  10
F10   69  88  69  90 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   69  83  70  88 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
249 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
249 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING...ENDING BY MID EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH TWO SEPARATE WEATHER FEATURES.  A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS PUSHES THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST...WITH IMPACTS BEING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  OTHERWISE...
THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THE RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN A SHORT TIMEFRAME.
THIS RESULTS IN FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ADDITIONALLY...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES AND THE LATEST
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS /OKCFLSTSA/.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
REGIONAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
LOCAL SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY AS
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
218 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKZ054-059-052000-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-
218 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN OSAGE AND CENTRAL PAWNEE

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
EAST OF BLACKBURN...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...MARAMEC...BLACKBURN...
SKEDEE AND CLEVELAND.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3631 9635 3647 9644 3648 9683 3617 9673

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
403 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

OKZ060-064-052145-
CREEK OK-TULSA OK-
403 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CREEK AND SOUTHERN TULSA

AT 403 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM SAND SPRINGS TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BROKEN
ARROW...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...GRAY...SAND SPRINGS...
LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...BROKEN ARROW AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3617 9610 3611 9577 3586 9579 3610 9644