Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Arkansas, August 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
840 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST SHORTLY TO UP POPS OVER AREA. THE UPPER LOW
OVER N TX...REMNANTS OF ERIN...ROTATING ENERGY OVER AR & DEVELOPING
MORE CONVECTION THAN EARLY THOUGHT. WILL GO CHANCE CAT ALL AREAS
LATE MORNING & INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON TRACK. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/

.AVIATION...
HZ/BR NOT AS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AS PAST FEW MORNINGS. THE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...SOME CU AND MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING AS THE MORNING GOES
ALONG...THEN ABOUT A 20-30 PCT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER ARKANSAS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIN WHICH IS OVER TEXAS. AS THE LOW OVER TEXAS
CONTINUES TO SPIN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT INTO ARKANSAS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF
ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH THEN MOVES WEST TOWARD ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE WITH THE RAIN BANDS COMING AROUND ERIN. ALSO THINK BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE WEST AND NORTH AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
HIGH. CHANCES DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES WEST AND BETTER SUBSIDENCE
RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HEAT ADVISORY NOT NEEDED FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     97  72  95  72 /  20  20  20  20
CAMDEN AR         98  73  98  73 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       95  69  93  71 /  30  30  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    98  74  97  74 /  20  20  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  75  97  75 /  20  20  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     99  74  99  73 /  20  10  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      97  74  96  72 /  30  30  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  95  70  93  71 /  30  30  20  20
NEWPORT AR        98  74  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     99  74  98  74 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  94  72 /  30  30  20  20
SEARCY AR         99  74  96  74 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      99  75  98  75 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 104 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS...ON SUNDAY FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 104 FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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