Hail in Arkansas, April 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BUILD INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FROM LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER MUCH DRIER AIR.
AFTER 09Z...INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MAY YIELD
SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. BY
18Z...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED...WITH CUMULUS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FEET. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. BY 22Z...THE
FRONT WILL BE NEARING CENTRAL ARKANSAS...OR KHOT/KLIT/KPBF...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT
KHRO/KBPK. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AN UNSUALLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX DEVLOPS IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE INTENSIFYING TROF MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ON SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINS IN THE
60S IN MOST AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH NORTHWESTERN AREAS AROUND
MIDDAY OR SO AND PUSH ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RATHER STRONG TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COULD SEE A SQUALL LINE
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BETWEEN
THIS AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK WILL MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE SMALL POPS AT FIRST TUESDAY THEN
INCREASE TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL BE LESS. MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER
80S BUT THE NORTH MAY HAVE THEIR HEATING CUT OFF WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WENT DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR SHOULD
KEEP INSTABILITY MODEST AND SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO 40S ELSEWHERE
AND MAXES IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FEEL LIKE THE GREENING UP
VEGETATION WILL HELP HOLD MIN TEMPS UP THROUGH THIS EPISODE. THIS
MAY BE WHAT MANY AROUND HERE CALL BLACKBERRY WINTER.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN...WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S...WILL DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THE PERIOD...ANY WIDELY SCATTERED RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE LIGHT. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     61  79  48  63 /  10  30  20  10
CAMDEN AR         66  82  52  67 /  10  30  30  10
HARRISON AR       60  77  42  60 /  10  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  81  50  66 /  10  30  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  81  51  66 /  10  30  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     66  83  54  68 /  10  30  30  10
MOUNT IDA AR      64  81  48  65 /  10  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  77  43  61 /  10  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  79  50  64 /  10  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     65  82  53  67 /  10  30  30  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  79  46  63 /  10  30  20  10
SEARCY AR         62  80  50  65 /  10  30  30  10
STUTTGART AR      64  82  52  66 /  10  30  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
915 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
915 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BUILT INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS FROM
LOUISIANA MONDAY EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE SEVERE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF MENA...ARKADELPHIA AND
MONTICELLO. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
AGAIN...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY MONDAY EVENING...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

46