Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, April 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC REVEALS A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE 850MB THETA E AXIS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE THETA E AXIS INTO THE LATE EVENING
TO OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THIS
SETUP...HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. UPPER WAVE STILL TO OUR
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL ALSO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY. AS UPPER
SYSTEM GETS CLOSER...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BETTER
DYNAMICS ARRIVE WITH UPPER SYSTEM AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL GET
GOING AFTER DARK WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 FROM BELOIT KS TO GRAND ISLAND
NEBR. THE AREA NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND IN THE ORD AREA WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED AREA TONIGHT. FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND TAKES CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH IT.

A COOLER DAY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  SURFACE RIDGE STILL ON TOP OF US
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COLD AIR OVER THE REGION
WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30.

LONG TERM...BEGINNING 12Z WEDNESDAY

LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILL OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND DRIFT INTO OUR AREA VIA THE JET STREAM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST A BIT...THUS ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE
RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL IMPULSE...MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE COLUMN WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AND AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. CURRENT THINKING IS
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE OF A RAIN / SNOW MIX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY EARLY MORNING THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE OVERTAKES THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FARTHER
SOUTH. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD WARM THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY MID DAY. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER
SUNSET. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ALL TOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT
AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT TRICKY FOR THURSDAY. I DID LOWER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...AND INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW...CLOUD COVER...AND WHAT MAY
BE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S RESULTS IN A DAYTIME DIURNAL OF ABOUT 13
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...SO I AM CONTENT TO WITH THURSDAYS HIGHS
FOR THE TIME BEING.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF OTHER SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THESE IMPULSES 5-7 DAYS OUT HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AT BELOW CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S...LOW IN THE 20S AND
30S.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
740 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
740 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO EXIT THE AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

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   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)