Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, April 2 to 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
247 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANGE IN THE AIR ESPECIALLY FROM THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. SEEMS THAT THE RECENT COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY
HELPED IN BREAKING US AWAY FROM THE SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN IN PLACE. THE CHANGES COMING ARE GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT EVEN SHOCKING TO SOME FOLKS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE AN IMPULSE WAVE
MOVE THROUGH STARTING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW JUST BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT WITH THE RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TOMORROW EVENING. THE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF LA. EVEN THOUGH BOTH FEATURES WILL WEAKEN
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING US MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN BRINGS US THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THANKS TO WEAKENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT. HAVE TO KEEP IT IN THE BACK
OF YOUR MIND THOUGH WHEN THE FLOW IS GOOD AS IT IS ALOFT AND LEFT
OVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS PAST WEEKENDS ACTIVITY.

AS FOR THE LONG TERM...EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE WEAKER
SIDE, ITS AFTERMATH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US. THE LOW CENTER WILL SIT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
EASTERN CANADA OPENING A PIPELINE FROM NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL
USHER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD ALL START
TO HAPPEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
MONDAY. THIS MEANS BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QUITE A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL OF
THIS AND NARROW DOWN THE NUMBERS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE AND END OF
THIS WEEK. JUST KNOW THAT IT APPEARS THAT MAJOR CHANGES ARE ON THE
WAY.

17/KLAWS

&&

AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  THROUGH
00Z EXPECT CEILINGS 3000 TO 5000 FEET WITH TEMPORARY CEILINGS AROUND
1500 FEET IN VICINITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  FROM 00Z
TO 06Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL LOCATIONS.  AFTER 06Z
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.  EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AND
VSBYS 3 TO 5 MILES IN FOG.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER 16Z .

/50/

&&

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  79  58  67  38 /  10  50  60  10  10
ANNISTON    60  80  60  67  39 /  20  50  60  20  10
BIRMINGHAM  63  80  59  68  40 /  20  50  60  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  62  80  61  72  41 /  20  50  60  20  10
CALERA      61  80  61  72  42 /  20  50  60  20  10
AUBURN      61  80  61  74  44 /  20  50  40  30  10
MONTGOMERY  63  80  63  73  43 /  20  50  30  30  10
TROY        62  80  60  76  42 /  20  50  30  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
129 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

ALZ011>015-017>050-031829-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
129 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WHITE HALL TO PHENIX CITY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND
8 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 8 PM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE THUNDERSTORM WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59 AND OCCUR FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TO NEAR
4 AM. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
358 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

ALZ048-022130-
RUSSELL-
358 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF UCHEE CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM CAN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR UCHEE CREEK THROUGH 430 PM
CDT.

10/ARM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
413 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

ALZ041-022145-
AUTAUGA-
413 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR AUTAUGA COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER AUTAUGAVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR AUTAUGAVILLE...BOOTH...
AUTAUGA COUNTY AIRPORT AND PRATTVILLE THROUGH 445 PM CDT.

10/ARM