High Wind in Virginia, January 25, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1234 AM EST WED JAN 25 2006

.AVIATION...

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST TO 25 TO AS MUCH AS 40
KNOTS THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED AT THE
ROANOKE AIRPORT. THE WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND JUST LEE OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND BLUE RIDGE.
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT LWB...WHILE ROANOKE WILL SEE HIGH END MVFR
CIGS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BETWEEN 07-09Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 843 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...

STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ROLLING INTO SE WVA SHOULD SLOW A BIT
CROSSING THE RIDGES BEFORE ZIPPING SE THRU THE REST OF THE CWA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BANDS OF -SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY HELPING TO
BRIEFLY MIX DOWN WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH GIVEN JET JUST OFF THE
SURFACE AND DRY AIR PER 00Z RAOBS. SINCE CURRENT WINDS LOOK TO BE
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE ADDRESSED IN AN SPS AND THUS LIKELY
WONT EXTEND THE GOING WIND ADVISORY SINCE EXPECT ONLY SHORT LIVED
ADVISORY SPEEDS SE WVA FOR NOW. QUICK TEMP FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID CHANGE TO -SN AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
WEST BEFORE ACTUAL POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE KICKS IN LATER TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE HARD TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST/NPW BUT WILL
NEED TO LIKELY ADD IN AT LEAST SOME -SHRA ALONG/WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO COVER CURRENT FRONTAL SHRA BANDS
APPROACHING. ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN THE VA HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS THE SW
VA RIDGES BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING SINCE IFFY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE PLAN TO UPDATE EARLY TO ADDRESS ONGOING
PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND BUMP UP WINDS A BIT WEST OUTSIDE THE
ADVISORY. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD LIMIT LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS
OUT E SO MAINLY CLEAR BUT BECOMING BREEZY OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT COOL OUT EAST PER MIXING ALTHO HARD CHARGING CAA ALOFT
SUGGESTS BEST BET LIKELY TO LEAVE GOING VALUES IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 645 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006)

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
TO THE WEST...CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE FOR VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. IN THE WEST THE TRAJECTORIES WILL BE UPSLOPE...AND CEILINGS AT
LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD SHOULD REACH LIFR LEVELS BY
MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LIFR OR
IFR LEVELS. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TO IFR OR MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 244 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MAKING
STAEDY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEAST...BUT THE STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MORE IN THE 03 TO 06Z TIME FRAME. SO...I HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
BEGINNING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS. AS FOR THE SNOW...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 2 TO 4
INCHES STILL LOOKS GOOD...WITH UP TO 6 INCHES WESTERN GREENBRIER.
THOUGH THIS IS FAIRLY PROLONGED EVENT...12 TO 18 HOURS...THE
TRAJECTORY FROM THE HYSPLIT MODEL INDICATES THE SOURCE REGION AIR
WILL NOT BE CROSSING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
STARTS OUT FAIRLY DEEP AROUND 06Z TONIGHT...BUT GETS SHALLOW FAST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
PROBABLY BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE
SNOW FORECAST WAS TO RAISE THE POPS TO MORE OF A WIDESPREAD
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN BEST UPSLOPE AREAS.

AS FOR THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE OCCURS
AFTER ABOUT 06Z IN THE MTNS...SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS AFTER
12Z. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS IN BUFKIT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW THEM TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. SO...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE WATAUGA...ASHE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
EXPECTING GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS TO THE SURFACE IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS. REST OF THE AREA THAT WAS COVERED BY A HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE IN A WIND ADVISORY. LOOKS LIKE GUSTS OF 4 TO 45 KNOTS WILL
REACH THE SURFACE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THERE ARE A FEW HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE WIND ADVISORY AREA THAT WILL SEE GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 KNOTS...SUCH AS THE HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT IN BATH COUNTY AND
MOUNTAIN LAKE...BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. WENT CLOSE TO MAV MOS
LOWS AND HIGHS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN THE WINDS SLACKEN OFF THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ALSO WEAKEN. EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW TO END
IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. VALLEYS
WIILL DECOUPLE AND THERE SHOULD BE A BIG SPREAD IN LOWS BASED ON
ELEVATION SINCE AT 50 TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WARMING AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THE MIXING ON THE RIDGES.

500 MB HEIGHTS RISE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HIGH THEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
START TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE MEXT
SYSTEM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...LOW LEVELS WINDS TURNTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WINDS. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE ECMWF WITH THE SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF AT 500 MB IN THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY. THIS BRINGS THE BEST DYNAMICS
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITAION AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE WESTERN
UPSLOPE AREAS.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIEKLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MEX GUIDANCE SINCE THE ECMWF IS TRACKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH
THAN THE GFS. THE COLD AIR AT 850 MB COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AVIATION...

SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION. NO CIGS EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING HEADING INTO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES WILL SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS...BY
22Z. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SOME MORE. FOR THE PERIOD 06 TO
18Z...SUSTAINED WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS AT TIMES. ROA TENDS TO HAVE A LITTLE STRONGER
WINDS IN THIS PATTERN...SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KTS. BLF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LWB...WILL SEE CIGS DECREASING IN
THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS HEADING
TOWARD 12Z. THE CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR VAZ015 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035 UNTIL 6
     PM WEDNESDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ001-018 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ002-003-019 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ042-043-045 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

NCZ001-018-VAZ015-251030-
ASHE-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-
425 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
25 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND
65 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND REPORTS.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ007-043>047-058-059-WVZ044-251030-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MONROE-
425 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WVZ042-043-045-251030-
MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
425 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO MANY AREAS. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES. WESTERN PORTIONS OF GREENBRIER WILL SEE UPWARDS OF 6
INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS.

NCZ002-003-019-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-251030-
ALLEGHANY-SURRY-WILKES-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
425 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND MUCH COLDER
AIR MOVES IN. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55
MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR WIND REPORTS.