A few strong to severe thunderstorms occurred on August 29 and 30 as a frontal boundary sagged south into the Mid Atlantic.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A few strong to severe thunderstorms occurred on August 29 and 30 as a frontal boundary sagged south into the Mid Atlantic.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 30, 10:25 AM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1125 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 .MORNING UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHGS FOR THE AFTN FCST. HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TO ISOLATED NORTH AND SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THINK TSTM THREAT IS MINIMAL AT BEST WILL KEEP A MENTION IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA FOR THIS AFTN AND EVNG. ELSEWHERE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO DVLP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN HVY WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 70S MOST AREAS. TIDE LEVELS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP TO ONE FT ANOMALIES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLD WATCH LATER TODAY IN ADDITION TO OTHER PRODUCTS RELATED TO THE EFFECTS OF ERNESTO APPROACHING. JB && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. FRONT LOOKS TO BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE DAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LOW STRATUS DECK BEGINNING TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER DELAWARE AND MARYLAND. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DECK IS NOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE DECK TO HANG IN MOST OF TODAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME. PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE ARE ALSO A FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IS NOTED ON THE WV LOOP OVER SW VA MOVING NORTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE MTNS (SHORTWAVE) AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS FAR AS PTYPE GOES...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE PRETTY HIGH POPS TODAY. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND THINK THIS WILL SQUELCH ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIP. WITH THE STRATUS DECK MOVING IN TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAYS READINGS AS THE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONG HEATING. THE GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY CLOSE...AND LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...ERNESTO MAY BRING FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEGINNING THU...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ANOTHER LANDFALL LATER IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...AFTER HAVING RE-EMERGED OFF THE FL COAST. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA OR NORTHERN NC...AND A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RUN OVER THE FRONT AND MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASON DIXON LINE BY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA ARE FORECAST TO RISE AOA 2 INCHES...AND WILL START A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON THU/THU NGT INTO THE HIGH CHC RANGE NORTH AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. EVEN THIS INCREASE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW A LOT OF MOS GUIDANCE. THE INCREASE IN POPS WAS CONTINUED FRI/FRI NGT FOR LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE OFFICIAL TPC TRACK TAKES ERNESTO NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES ERNESTO TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE TRACK...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A SLUG OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR CWA THAT SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN POPS...AND QPF. AGAIN...THESE POPS ARE BELOW MOST MOS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATE A LOT OF 80-100 PCT VALUES. PRECIPITABLE WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE AVERAGE...OVER 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS (EXACT LOCATION OF HIGHEST VALUES DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ERNESTO). A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS...AND SOME PLACES WILL RECEIVE UP TO 5 INCHES...PERHAPS EVEN UP TO 10 INCHES LOCALLY...THROUGH FRI NGT. IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A FLOOD WATCH...BUT ESF AND HWO PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK)...SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY WIND UP BEING LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER WEST/INLAND...A PORTION OF OUR CWA WOULD ALSO BE VULNERABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIND- WISE...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ERNESTO IS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MAKES IT INTO VA...BUT EVEN A DEPRESSION (BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION) WOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AND HAVE INCREASED WINDS WHERE MANY AREAS WILL BE CONSIDERED BREEZY IN TEXT PRODUCTS. ALSO...HAVE KNOCKED DOWN HIGH TEMPS...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH AND COULD ENVISION MANY PLACES REMAINING IN THE 60S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BY SAT...ERNESTO WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND ITS MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO CANADA. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH ERNESTO...SO KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR SAT...BUT AN OVERALL DRYING OUT TREND WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING THE DRY DAY OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...DRY WX IS NOT LIKELY MON/TUE. GFFX MOS INDICATES ABOVE CLIMO POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. GFS SHOWS SOME SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH...AND A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE. SO...HAVE CHC POPS IN MON/TUE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS ARE PROGGED FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. A FEW LOWER CIGS COULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THEY ARE PRESENT IN THE OBS TO THE EAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. VSBYS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 5-6SM TODAY IN HZ AND POSSIBLE DZ. && .MARINE... ERNESTO WILL IMPACT THE MARINE WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS INTO FRI...FAVORING 20 TO 25 KT ON FRI...BEFORE DECREASING BY SAT. THESE SPEEDS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN ERNESTO AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED. FOR NOW...WITH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY FRI AND WILL CONTINUE FRI NGT. BEFORE THAT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THU/THU NGT...BUT WILL CURRENTLY HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY SCA WITH FORECAST WINDS CLOSE TO 15 KT. IN ADDITION...PROLONGED EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS NOW THROUGH FRI NGT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING COASTAL FLOODING RISK AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. WATERS LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE AT TO 0.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER WILL INCREASE THU/FRI WHERE AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LISTEMAA LONG TERM/MARINE...PELOQUIN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1135 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021- 025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ048>055-311000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ALLEGANY-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-GRANT-MINERAL-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- PENDLETON-HARDY- 1135 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A LINGERING FRONT ON FRIDAY...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAY RESULT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PROLONGED ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TIDAL DEPARTURES AND POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC. WINDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO COULD CAUSE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE TIDAL WATERS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. JB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A large tree branch was downed in Culpeper and crashed onto a parked car. The time was estimated from newspaper accounts and NWS data.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2006Every state in 2006This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2006
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5525276.