Heat in Texas, July 14 to 21, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
745 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ZFPFWD TO MENTION ISOLATED SHRA/TSTM IN
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.  NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST
OF TEMPLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. SATELLITE LOOPS
INDICATE THAT THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO UP THE WACO...SO
HAVE JUST PLACED A TEMPO SCT015 FOR THE 13 TO 15Z PERIOD IN THE WACO
TAF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING THE STRONG
UPPER RIDGE AS THEY TRY TO CROSS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
THUS...DON/T THINK THAT THIS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES. HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THOSE SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. #58

&&

.DISCUSSION...
324 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
RUNNING OUT OF WAYS TO SAY HOT AND DRY (HOW ABOUT
SIZZLING AND PARCHED). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENT
AIR UNDER UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY. RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD INTO THE EASTERN US BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH TEXAS REMAINING DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH. RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO BE 100 DEGREE TEMPS AND LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP. AREA OF CONVECTION IN KS/OK ASSOCIATED WITH S/W
ROTATING AROUND EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL SEND OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN TO THE NORTH. ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT INTO TX
GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE...SO WILL LEAVE THE 10 POPS IN ALONG THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY MAY GET GOING TO THE
SOUTH DURING THE AFTNS...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
MOVING NORTH. SPC SWODY1/SWODY2 PRETTY MUCH SUMS IT UP FOR NORTH
TEXAS...EXCLUDING MOST OF THE AREA FROM GENERAL THUNDER FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...RIDGE REMAINS
IN CONTROL...WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES AND CONTINUED HOT TEMPS.
GFS ATTEMPTS TO RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...OPENING NORTH TEXAS UP TO SOME GULF MOISTURE AND
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...BUT ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW NO SUCH
LUCK...KEEPING RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE...SO WILL FOLLOW THE
CONSENSUS AND KEEP THINGS DRY. GRAB AN ICE COLD LEMONADE AND FIND
A SHADY TREE

CONCERNING THE HEAT ADVISORY...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO ONCE
AGAIN BORDERLINE ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE RED RIVER WERE AT 105+
YESTERDAY. DO EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S
AGAIN THIS AFTN YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105. WITH LITTLE
RELIEF COMING AT NIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM THE
METROPLEX NORTH TO THE RED RIVER. SEE NPWFWD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 102  79 101  78 /  05  05  10  10
WACO, TX              99  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX            101  77 100  77 /  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX           103  79 102  78 /  05  05  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX         102  78 101  78 /  05  05  10  10
DALLAS, TX           102  79 101  78 /  05  05  10  10
TERRELL, TX          101  78 100  76 /  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            98  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-
TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-
TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120.

&&

DUNN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
755 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

...HEAT ADVISORY NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE...DALLAS...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BOWIE...TO DENTON...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

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