Rip Current in Florida, July 14, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...AXIS OF ATLANTIC RIDGE ROUGHLY WHERE IT SHOULD BE AT
30 NORTH LATITUDE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. AXIS IS ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED
ALL THE WAY UP TO H5, WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS RIDGE AXIS IS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG 34-35 NORTH LATITUDE. CIRRUS OVER MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY IS APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AROUND H25 FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS EXTENDING BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS US INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT THESE
UPPER LEVELS FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

ADVERTISED MUCH DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
WITNESSED BY THE 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.45 INCHES FROM
YESTERDAY MORNINGS 2.14. MUCH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO INLAND AREAS AND THE SOUTHWEST GULF COAST IF
A SEABREEZE CAN DEVELOP TO CREATE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE. WILL CARRY
ONLY SMALL POPS RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIMITED FOR ANY CONVECTION. IT SHOULD BE NICE TO DRY OUT A
BIT FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN.

LOOKING TOWARD THE MIDDLE RANGE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTH SHOULD MOVE APPROXIMATELY TO OUR
LONGITUDE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING BETTER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES SHOULD SUPPRESS THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT
ALL THIS MEANS IS A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY POPS...40 TO 50
PERCENT...BY SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE BACK NORTH TO ITS ACCUSTOMED 30N POSITION WEDNESDAY AND
STAY THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. RESOLVING TROPICAL WAVES AND WHETHER THEY
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OR EXTEND FAR ENOUGH NORTH THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME IS TOUGH SO WILL TREND TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 15 KTS OR LESS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO BOATERS. IN FACT NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THAT PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE DOWN SCEC
THAT DID NOT PAN OUT TODAY WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 50
PERCENT IN SOME PLACES OVER INLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND BELOW 45 PERCENT MAINLY INLAND COLLIER GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS IS STILL
ABOVE CRITICAL CONCERN LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  90 /  - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  80  89 /  - 10 10 20
MIAMI            79  90  80  90 /  - 10 10 20
NAPLES           75  92  75  92 / 10 20 10 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

FLZ063-066>075-151030-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
621 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE EAST
COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.